Cody Snavely
Compared to the 2023 season, the Dodgers’ starting pitching depth in 2024 is among the best in baseball.
While they have frontline starters such as Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, along with backend starters such as Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan, and others, they also have a core set of MLB veterans ready to make an impact.
For this position preview, we take an unorthodox view of the rotation and look at three guys who will undoubtedly impact the Dodgers in 2024.
Walker “Buetane” Buehler makes his return
After a strong 2021 season where Buehler finished top five in NL Cy Young voting, posting a 2.47 ERA and 171 ERA+ in a career-high 207.2 innings, it has been a problematic two seasons since.
Since Buehler went down in 2022 due to an elbow injury, which inevitably required his second career, Tommy John Surgery, there has been a void in the Dodgers rotation.
That void was even more impactful in October when Buehelr’s career 2.94 postseasons were sorely missed as the Dodgers lost back-to-back NLDSs to the Padres and Diamondbacks.
On the road to recovery in 2023, Buehler attempted a late-season comeback, but after one rehab appearance, the Dodgers shut him down for the rest of the year, hoping to have a clean slate for 2024.
Entering the 2024 season with a new, revamped starting rotation, Buehler can avoid added pressure to be the same guy he was pre-TJS. However, recent reports that the former All-Star will start the season late should raise some concern.
When asked about Buehler’s status, Dave Roberts confirmed those fears, stating that right now, Buehler needs to work on more command and consistency until he sees game action.
However, I have repeatedly stated that the plan is to have Walker debut sometime in May or early June, similar to Bobby Miller last season.
Per FanGraphs, Buehler’s projections are solid for a guy entering nearly two seasons removed, starting 23 games with a 3.94 ERA, 4.04 FIP, and 2.3 WAR.
With Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Bobby Miller ahead of him, Buehler will have plenty of cushions to ease his way back into the starting rotation and hopefully save his best baseball for October.
Big Maple makes his venture out West
While the Dodgers added arms to their rotation via trade and free agency, left-handed starting pitching was one area they needed more depth.
While Clayton Kershaw would inevitably return, he will be out until at least mid-summer, leaving a gap in the left-handed starter department.
Enter James Paxton, who the Dodgers had prior interest in at the 2023 trade deadline but opted to go with Lance Lynn instead.
Since the 2020 season, Paxton has only managed to stay on the mound for 117.2 innings, most of which were during the 2023 season, when he pitched his highest count since 2019 with 96 innings.
Paxton missed the entire 2022 season as he recovered from Tommy John Surgery. Injuries got the best of him at the end of the season, as a knee injury ended his 2023 campaign.
However, before that, in his first 16 starts, he was an excellent option for the Red Sox, going 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA, 3.69 x FIP, 26.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, and 1.14 WHIP.
The Dodgers are taking a risk by bringing in Paxton. However, much of the deal is based on his health and making the Opening Day roster.
For the 2024 season, the Dodgers are asking Paxton to help eat innings in the backend of the rotation while possibly being a bridge to Kershaw, who should return in August.
FanGraphs projects Paxton to start 21 games but appear in 34, posting a 4.32 ERA, 4.68 FIP, and a 24.8 K% in 123 innings. The Dodgers hope Paxton and his knee hold up to carry the workload between the staff.
Dodgers veteran looks to rewrite his swan song
The Dodgers’ biggest wild card in 2024 is Clayton Kershaw, who is expected to miss most of the season on the IL as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
Kershaw, who is entering his 36th season, has spent his entire career with the Dodgers. He will likely stay that way after signing a one-year deal and a player option in 2025.
The 2023 season was complicated for Kershaw, who was riddled with injuries that ultimately cost the Dodgers in October despite posting some of his best overall numbers in a few years.
Prior to a shoulder injury that would sideline him most of the summer, Kershaw posted elite numbers in the first half, going 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA, 105 SO, and 9.9 K/9 in 95 innings.
Upon his return from the IL in September, there was a noticeable dip in velocity, with his fastball maxing out at 89-92 MPH, which was not fooling many hitters.
After an embarrassing defeat in game one of the NLDS, in which Kershaw could not get out of the first inning, the left-handed starter elected to have surgery in the offseason.
Despite his long and successful career, this was the first time he’d ever been under the knife and missed a significant amount of time on the IL.
If Kershaw can come back this season, it is not hard to expect him still to be one of the best starters in the league. However, having major surgery at his age could prove to be a career-ending issue.
The Dodgers hope that if Kershaw returns, he will be able to pitch his best baseball come October, when, for the first time in his career, he no longer has to be “the guy.”
DODGERSBEAT GRADE: B-
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