Cody Snavely
The 2024 National League Championship Series shifts gears to Queens, New York, where this best-of-seven turns into a best-of-five, with the next three games taking place at Citi Field, the home of the New York Mets.
This series is all evened up after the Dodgers dropped game two to the New York Mets with the planned bullpen game blowing up in Dodgers manager Dave Roberts‘s face as the Mets would drop six runs in the first two innings thanks to a leadoff solo shot by Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor and a grand slam given up by Landon Knack to Mets third baseman Mark Vientos.
Those six runs were all the Mets needed to even up the series at one game as they return home to a ballpark they’ve played well in this October where they won both games last week against the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, despite a dominant game one win off the back of Jack Flaherty, who pitched seven scoreless innings after the offense dropped nine total runs in support, had a complete 180 the next day where the pitching and offense were not there.
Just like the NLDS the Dodgers will head on the road with the series tied and for a game three start will hope to get a better outing from Walker Buhler and the Dodgers defense after the righty allowed six earned runs in the Dodgers 6-5 loss to the Friars last week.
The Dodgers have played well on the road this season, collecting forty-six wins of the team’s eighty-one games. However, the Mets have played just as well at home, with a 46-35 record this season.
On the rubber
Walker Buehler (0-1, 10.80 ERA) vs Luis Severino (1-0, 4.50 ERA)
Taking the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers for his second start this postseason is right-handed pitcher Walker Buehler.
Buehler’s 2024 postseason debut last week in game three of the National League Division Series was not the best. The righty surrendered six runs in five innings of work, although the defense was a massive reason why that second inning blew up on him.
Despite the poor stat line, Walker pitched a decent game, tossing three straight scoreless innings, giving the Dodgers a shot to chip away and potentially comeback in the game. While the Dodgers would fall just short, his start was considered the turnaround for the team after he showcased his frustrations in the dugout on a water cooler.
In his career, Buehler has been known as a “big game” pitcher and that trademark holds well even with last week’s blip, posting a career 3.40 ERA in the postseason.
On Buehler’s side is a well-rested bullpen, as so far this series, the Dodgers have not had to utilize high-leverage arms such as Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, or Blake Treinen.
However, for the Dodgers to be better positioned for this series and the next two games, they need Buehler to give the team length and push past the five-inning threshold if he can.
Right-handed pitcher Luis Severino opposes Buehler on the mound for the Mets, and the righty has been a bargain for the one-year $13 million deal he signed with the Mets this past winter.
Sevy, 30, spent his whole career with the Yankees before the team moved on from the righty once he reached free agency last offseason. Severino’s injury history has derailed his career to an extent, missing all of the 2020 season and most of 2021 recovering from Tommy John Surgery.
Last season, the righty battled an oblique injury, which ended his year prematurely in September, putting his future in pinstripes in doubt. Well, Sevy would trade those iconic Yankees pinstripes with their inter-city rival New York Mets, and in his first season, he has been better than advertised, with a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings pitched.
It is the most innings that Severino has pitched in his Major League career since the 2018 season (191.1) and almost the same amount of innings as the past three seasons combined, as from 2019-2023, Severino pitched a combined 209.1 innings.
Severino was an integral part of the New York Mets’ pitching staff this season, ranking second on the team in wins (11), third in ERA (3.91), and leading in innings pitched.
This postseason, Sevy has been exceptionally good, going into the 6th inning in each start and posting a 4.50 ERA in twelve innings.
The Mets are hoping for a similar performance from Severino tonight. Their bullpen, which has given up seventeen runs in thirty-five innings so far this postseason, would like the night off, especially after having to use key relief pitchers in their game two win as right-handed pitchers Ryan Stanek and Edwin Diaz went 1.1 innings each to close it out.
Something to watch for here is that Severino has not pitched since game two of the National League Division Series, which means that coming into tonight’s game, he’s had nine full days off, which could impact his sharpness.
Who to watch?
For the Los Angeles Dodgers, the collective unit to watch during game three is the team’s one through five hitters, who went a combined 0-for-19 in the loss during game two.
Will Smith has been lost at the plate this entire postseason, hitting a combined .087/.250/.217 with a .467 OPS in the NLDS and NLCS. However, the catcher has hit well at Citi Field with six home runs in his career.
Mookie Betts, who has had a cold October despite two strong games in the NLDS, has seen Mets starter Luis Severino the most of anyone on the Dodgers due to his time with the Red Sox.
In his career, Betts has gone a combined 10-for-32 with one home run and four RBI, along with a .952 OPS in thirty-eight plate appearances.
Last year, when the Yankees came to Dodger Stadium, Betts went 4-for-4, including two home runs, in a Dodgers 8-4 win over starter Luis Severino.
An honorable mention is also Shohei Ohtani, who is 0-for-19 with the bases empty this postseason and will kick off game three batting leadoff tonight.
For the New York Mets, I’ll go with designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who, according to New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, is penciled in to get the start in today’s game.
Martinez’s career .293/.385/.556 slash line and .941 OPS in 156 postseason plate appearances will undoubtedly be a factor for the remainder of this series if given the opportunity.
Another name to watch for today’s game is Mets first baseman Pete Alonso. He is 5-for-14 in his career off Walker Buehler with four home runs and eight RBIs. With this potentially being his last three games in a Met uniform at Citi Field, he could try to go out with a bang.
Where to watch
The National League postseason will be exclusively broadcast on Fox Sports One (FS1) or Fox all the way up until the World Series.
Dodgers play-by-play broadcast announcer Joe Davis will join Atlanta Braves legend John Smoltz on the call as the primetime Fox baseball crew will broadcast this series.
First pitch for game five is set for 5:08 PM PT at Citi Field.
Betting Odds
The Dodgers are favored in this one, at -111, while the underdog Mets have -108 odds to play spoiler. Los Angeles (-1.5) is favored on the run line. The over/under for the contest has been set at 7.5 runs.
The Dodgers are also favored in the win probability with a 52% chance compared to the Mets’ 48%.
Have you subscribed to the Bleed Los Podcast YouTube channel? Be sure to ring the notification bell to watch player interviews, participate in shows & promotions, and stay up to date on all Dodgers news and rumors!
