Cody Snavely
Well, here we are again on the brink of elimination. For the third straight season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are staring down the barrel of a gun, one loss away from their season being forgotten. For the second time in three seasons, it is the San Diego Padres behind the trigger.
Following Teoscar Hernández‘s game-changing grand slam in the third inning, bringing the team within one run, the Dodgers’ bats fell silent. They managed just one hit in the remaining innings, a modest single by Freddie Freeman, out of a total of twenty-one at-bats.
Despite Mookie Betts finally hitting a home run just out of the reach of Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar and going 2-for-4 on the day, the Dodgers’ pitching and defense could not get the job done in game three.
Buehler did the best he could given the situation, but he was pegged for six runs although, did give the Dodgers a much-needed five innings of work, but in the end, it was not enough.
Entering tonight’s game, the Dodgers are out of options in the starting rotation as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts confirmed that the team would go with a bullpen game.
It is do-or-die for the Dodgers at Petco Park, a similar situation the team faced in the 2022 NLDS where that team, which had 111 regular season games, won game one of the series and dropped three straight. It is all hands on deck in what could be the final game of the Dodgers 2024 season.
On the rubber
TBD (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA)
The Dodgers’ entire pitching staff will be on the rubber tonight. It is a do-or-die game four for the Dodgers, and virtually everyone outside of right-handed pitchers Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is available to make an impact tonight.
In a way, the Dodgers have an advantage using their bullpen, an area of the team that they have depended on for most of the season. The Dodgers bullpen has a modest 4.26 ERA this postseason, but if you remove the blip by righties Michael Grove and Edgardo Henriquez, who each had an ERA of twenty-seven, the Dodgers bullpen has a collective ERA of 3.53.
Right-handed pitchers Landon Knack and Ben Casparius could be used as lengthy options, but I’d imagine that tonight is a batter-by-batter plan with all their high-leverage arms available to use in crucial situations.
Right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease, who is making his first career start on just three days’ rest, will take the mound for the San Diego Padres, confirmed Padres manager Mike Shildt.
Cease kicked off the series in game one, where the righty allowed five runs on six hits on eighty-two pitches, with the dagger of the day being Shohei Ohtani‘s game-tying three-run home run.
During the regular season, Cease pitched a career-high in innings (189.1), and games started with thirty-three. In his career, he has primarily gone every fifth day and, in those games, has a 3.65 ERA.
At Petco Park, Cease has a record of 6-8 with a 3.26 ERA. Over the last few starts in the second half, Cease has struggled with his command, which was adamant in the first game of this series when the righty walked two batters and could not locate any of his off-speed pitches.
In a way, this move could backfire on the Padres as the Dodgers hit Cease well in game one. With the righty in unfamiliar territory on three days’ rest, it could be a tremendous opportunity to get the bats going and push the series back to Los Angeles.
The Padres also have a fresh lefty in Martín Pérez, who had a 3.46 ERA in ten appearances for the San Diego Padres since the trade deadline and could be a massive factor in this game.
Who to watch?
My player to watch for the Los Angeles Dodgers is utility player Kiké Hernández, who is hopefully in the starting lineup for the Dodgers tonight. In his career, he is 5-for-12 versus Dylan Cease with a 1.250 OPS and one home run.
When the Dodgers re-signed Hernández, they did so with his October performance in mind. However, he has only made two plate appearances so far in this series.
The Dodgers’ offense needs some type of spark in this one as collectively, this series, they are the worst-ranked offense in the National League postseason with a .216/.280/.340 slash line and a 72 wRC+.
For the Padres, the Dodgers need to find some solution for Fernando Tatís Jr., who has destroyed the Dodgers’ pitching staff this series. I would even go as far as to say pitch around or intentionally walk him, as the Dodgers have no answer for him so far.
Where to watch
The National League postseason will be exclusively broadcast on Fox Sports One (FS1) or Fox all the way up until the World Series.
Dodgers play-by-play broadcast announcer Joe Davis will join Atlanta Braves legend John Smoltz on the call, as this series will be broadcast by the primetime Fox baseball crew.
First pitch for game four is set for 6:08 PM PT at Petco Park
Betting Odds
The Dodgers are +116 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the favorite Padres (-137). San Diego is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The matchup’s over/under has been set at 8 runs on Fox Sports Bet.
The Padres are also the favorite, with win probabilities of 53% compared to 47% for the Dodgers.
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