Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES — Ten days ago, the Dodgers left San Francisco after blowing a prime opportunity to take first place in the NL West once and for all. They had had they ace Walker Buehler throwing against a bullpen game for the Giants. It looked like all the tumblers were finally falling in the Dodgers’ favor. However, it was not to be, Buehler got rocked for six earned runs in the worst start of his season and the Dodgers fell in the rubber game of the series against the Giants. Now, two weekends later, the Dodgers find themselves in essentially the same spot: trailing the Giants by one game in the standings.
Dodgers hold serve through a tough part of the schedule
The week after the Giants’ series was fraught with peril as the Giants had inferior opponents to deal with while the Dodgers locked horns with the Cardinals and Padres. So, it wasn’t entirely surprising that they would find themselves losing ground over this stretch, especially considering the fact that the Giants were reeling off nine straight wins at the same time. But the Dodgers hung in there, only losing two of four to the Cards and sweeping San Diego at home. But by the time those two series were over and done, the Giants had extended their lead in the division to 2.5 games.
The worm turns
However, in the last four days, the gains the Giants made last week have been completely erased. The Dodgers did their part by taking care of business with a three-game sweep of the hapless D-backs at Dodger Stadium. On the other hand, after losing the first two, the Padres managed to pick themselves up off the mat and win the final two games against San Francisco, leaving the Dodgers just a single game behind the Giants going into the weekend. Thanks, Padres!
Two quality opponents: Reds and Braves
The Dodgers will be in Cincinnati this weekend to take on the Reds. Meanwhile, the Giants will host the Atlanta Braves at home. On paper, both teams are pretty evenly matched. Atlanta is leading the weak NL East with a 76-68 record, while Cincinnati is in a dogfight for the second Wild Card with record of 76-71. So obviously, neither team is setting the league on fire this year. Atlanta is playing a little bit better than Cincinnati these days, but just barely. The Braves are 5-5 over the last ten games, while the Reds are 3-7. So, you’d have to favor both the Dodgers and the Giants to win their series this weekend.
Dodgers continue to surge
The Dodgers go into the weekend series playing very good baseball since the trade deadline. The acquisition of Max Scherzer and (perhaps more importantly) Trea Turner seems to have energized the team. Since the July 31 deadline, the Dodgers are an MLB-leading 31-10, winning over 75% of their games. In fact, if the Dodgers go 11-4 over the last two weeks of the season, they will have matched their amazing 43-17 from 2020 over the last sixty games of 2021.
Cincinnati became a contender by default
But first, they have to face the Reds. The Reds have been an interesting story all year. Never totally out of it, but never really in it, either. Most folks thought that the two Wild Cards would come out of the NL West. That was until the Padres did an major faceplant in the last six weeks and have let both the Reds and the Cardinals back into the race. Over the second half, though, the Reds have been mediocre at best. Their record after the All-Star break has been a pedestrian 27-29.
Dodgers dropped 2 of 3 to Reds in April
The Dodgers haven’t seen Cincinnati since late April, when the Redlegs came into Dodgers Stadium for a three-game set. The Reds won the first two, but the Dodgers bounced back in the final game when Clayton Kershaw and the pen shut them out 8-0. Still, that was in the midst of that funky 5-15 stretch that the Dodgers suffered through earlier in the year. It really is a completely different team now.
Reds hitters have pop
The Reds have been a curious team this year, but the most consistent part of their game has been their ability to bash. The lineup has three elite bats: Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto, and Jesse Winker. Castellanos is up near the top of most offensive categories this year, and locked in a fight with Trea Turner for the NL batting crown. Joey Votto has had something of a resurgence this year, and for a while it seemed like he was hitting a home run in almost every game he played. He’s cooled down since then, but still has an OPS over .900. Jesse Winker was getting some MVP buzz earlier in the year, but is just coming of an IL stint, so may not be at the top of his game during this weekend series. In addition, they’ve gotten solid play from Jonathan India, who looks to be the clear Rookie of the Year favorite in the NL this season. So clearly, it’s a potent lineup.
Cincinnati sends its best three starters to the mound this weekend
In a fight for their playoff lives, the Reds will send the best they have after the Dodgers this weekend. Luis Castillo (7-15, 4.15 ERA) will get the start on Friday. On Saturday afternoon, it will be Sonny Gray (7-7, 3.80) and then Wade Miley (12-5, 3.09) will toe the rubber in the Sunday finale. Of the three, it is Miley who is most likely to start a Wild Card game if the Reds were able to sneak in there. However, none of these pitchers scares me that much.
However, it should be noted that Sonny Gray pitched a very good game against the Dodgers earlier in the year. In the game that Kershaw won, he went 5.2 innings and gave up two runs on four hits, but the eye-popping stat on the day was that he struck out eleven Dodgers in that game. Which is pretty impressive given the relatively short outing. It wasn’t until the late innings that the game was broken wide open.
Dodgers sending fire to the mound
However, the Dodgers match up pitching with anybody in the league, and this weekend doesn’t even look close. On Friday night, it will be Walker Buehler (14-3, 2.32). Getting the nod on Sunday will be Max Scherzer (14-4, 2.17), no doubt looking to bolster his late case for Cy Young. Then on Sunday, it will be Clayton Kershaw coming back and trying to build on the solid comeback start he had against the D-backs earlier this week.
This seems to be a good start for Kersh, as the Reds struggle notoriously against lefties (recall the Kershaw shutout in April). The Reds rank dead last in team batting average vs. southpaws, hitting a measly .225 against them. Kershaw will surely still be on a pitch count but I like his chances of going five and getting a W in this one.
Is this the weekend we reach the mountaintop?
I’m not in the prediction business, and it would be foolhardy to expect a sweep, but you have to feel pretty good about what the Dodgers are throwing at the Reds this weekend. Couple that with a suddenly resurgent offense, and maybe just maybe we can get out of Ohio with a series win. And, if we get a little help from the Braves, maybe we can get into next week in first place. Wouldn’t that be something!
