Cody Snavely
The Los Angeles Dodgers took a massive step in this best-of-seven National League Championship Series with yesterday’s 8-0 win over the New York Mets at Citi Field.
After a disappointing end to game two for the Dodgers planned bullpen game, all eyes were on the Dodgers in Queens, New York, as this series shifted gears to the East Coast and the crisp fall air.
Walker Buehler took the ball in game three and gave the Dodgers exactly what they needed: four hard-fought scoreless innings. The offense led by postseason hero Kiké Hernández and Shohei Ohtani handled Luis Severino and the New York Mets bullpen in another lopsided affair, which saw the Dodgers drop eight runs for the second time in this series.
While the series is not over per se, the Dodgers are in the driver’s seat these next two games in New York with rookie right-handed starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting tonight and righty Jack Flaherty starting tomorrow along with a well-rested bullpen despite having to pick up five innings in yesterday’s game.
A win today would put the Dodgers in striking distance of their first World Series berth since the 2020 season, and it is the first time in a NLCS that the team is up 2-1 since the 2017 season, where the Los Angeles Dodgers steamrolled the Chicago Cubs in five games closing it out at Wrigley Field.
For the Dodgers, they hope not to return back to Dodger Stadium and wrap it up here on the road, but it all starts tonight, as a win today puts all the pressure on the New York Mets.
On the rubber
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-0, 5.63 ERA) vs José Quintana (LHP)(0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Making his third start this postseason is rookie righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who rebounded well in his last start, pitching five scoreless innings, allowing just five hits, and collecting two strikeouts on the day against a San Diageo Padres team that has owned him all year.
It will be just the second start of Yamamoto’s career against the New York Mets, as the righty faced them way back in April at the beginning of the season. In that start, Yamamoto was not as sharp, allowing seven hits, one walk, and three runs, but did collect nine punch-outs on the day.
Yamamoto, who was courted by New York Mets owner Steve Cohen during the offseason reportedly offering the Japanese right-hander more money than the Los Angeles Dodgers. It will be his first start at Citi Field, facing the Mets in front of their home crowd, who already showered fellow Japanese teammate Shohei Ohtani with boos in yesterday’s pregame introductions.
With yesterday’s start, Buehler potentially opened a weakness in the Mets’ bats, which generated a lot of swings and misses. Yamamoto was exceptional in those situations this season, ranking in the 82nd percentile in chase percentage, 85th in strikeout percentage, and 81st in pitching run value.
While that has not transferred to October yet, we could see a big start from Yamamoto, who has seemed to be putting it together lately.
The Dodgers bullpen is also expected to be a factor tonight as they’ve been all postseason including this NLCS where they have a collective 3.60 ERA in fifteen innings pitched.
Their high-leverage arms, despite being used in yesterday’s win, got the job done quickly, as right-handed relief pitchers Michael Kopech and Blake Treinen got their job done in less than twelve pitches.
Evan Phillips is the lone arm that has still not been used in this series, and I would not be shocked if the Dodgers save him for the top of the Mets’ order when it comes to it late in the game.
On the mound for the New York Mets is 36-year-old veteran left-handed pitcher José Quintana. He is making his third postseason start this October and has been lights out, with a 0.00 ERA in eleven innings pitched.
Quintana had an excellent season for the Mets in 2024, pitching 170.1 innings with a modest 3.75 ERA and 4.56 FIP. However, Quintana has been especially good in the postseason, as the lefty has a 2.43 ERA and 2.85 FIP in 29.2 career postseason innings.
In thirteen appearances against the Dodgers throughout his career, Quintana has also been superb, going 3-2 with a 2.04 ERA and collecting fifty-two strikeouts. His last start versus Los Angeles came back on May 28th, when he pitched six innings, allowing three runs on eight hits, including two home runs, in the Mets’ 3-0 loss in game one of a doubleheader.
Due to his age, Quintana does not possess overpowering stuff, ranking in the 19th percentile in whiff percentage and 18th in strikeout percentage and he has struggled with command, ranking in the 38th percentile in walks allowed.
Quintana’s five-pitch mix (Sinker, 4-seam, Curve, Change, Slurve) will likely keep the Dodgers honest at the plate, but it will be interesting to see how he attacks these Dodgers hitters who have shown tremendous plate discipline.
Who to watch?
My player to watch for the Dodgers is going to be a postseason icon—Mr. October himself, Kiké Hernández.
Hernández, 33, has quite the postseason pedigree, including a lifetime .280/.353/.308 slash line and a .908 OPS in October.
While Hernández was only 3-for-13 off Quintana during the regular season, one of his most iconic postseason moments came with Quintana on the mound in the 2017 NLCS against the Chicago Cubs.
In the game five clincher for Los Angeles, Kiké Hernández blasted three home runs, the first one off Cubs starting pitcher José Quintana.
For the New York Mets, I’ll go with third baseman Mark Vientos and shortstop Francisco Lindor, who seem to be the only “threats” the Dodgers see in the Mets lineup.
In this series so far, in game three, we saw the Dodgers deploy their high-leverage arms to combat the Mets’ order, with Michael Kopech facing the Mets’ 1-2-3 hitters in the fifth inning.
If those batters don’t step up today, I’ll find it very hard for the Mets to win today or this series.
Where to watch
The National League postseason will be exclusively broadcast on Fox Sports One (FS1) or Fox all the way up until the World Series.
Dodgers play-by-play broadcast announcer Joe Davis will join Atlanta Braves legend John Smoltz on the call as the primetime Fox baseball crew will broadcast this series.
First pitch for game five is set for 5:08 PM PT at Citi Field.
Betting Odds
The Dodgers would take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a Game 4 win, while the Dodgers hope to tie the series up heading into Game 5. The Dodgers are the favorite in this one, at -136, while the underdog Mets have +116 odds to win. Los Angeles (-1.5) is favored on the run line. A 7-run total is set for this game.
The Dodgers are also the favorite in the win probability at 51% compared to the Mets at 49%.
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