Cody Snavely
The stage is set for an exhilarating game five matchup in the National League Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres tonight at Chavez Ravine.
In game four, with their backs against the wall, the Dodgers went with a bullpen game on the road and came out the other end with a thrilling 8-0 win with the Dodgers offense led by Mookie Betts, who went 2-for-4 on the day with a solo home run that forced a winner-take-all game five.
Unlike the last meeting between the Padres and Dodgers in the 2022 National League Division Series, the Friars could not close it out in front of their home crowd, and they will head back to Los Angeles, where they split the first two games of this series.
Despite what the baseball media will tell you about the Padres’ high-powered offense led by Fernando Tatís Jr., the Dodgers have actually outscored their opponent by one run. The Dodgers’ offense scored a total of twenty-two runs compared to the Padres’ twenty-one during the first four games of this series.
Both team’s bullpens have been impressive this series, but the Dodgers pen has been the most critical part of this series after putting together nine scoreless innings in Wednesday’s shutout win.
It is the first winner-take-all game at Dodger Stadium since the 2021 National League Wild Card against the St. Louis Cardinals, which ended in a walk-off 3-1 win thanks to Chris Taylor‘s two-run home run in the 9th inning.
For the Dodgers, it is their first winner-take-all game since the 2021 National League Division Series against the San Francisco Giants. Since taking the helm in 2016, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has managed seven winner-take-all games and comes in today with five wins.
The Dodgers hope to keep that magic alive to get their first National League Championship appearance in three seasons, while the Padres look to knock out the Dodgers again in the NLDS for the second time in three seasons.
On the rubber
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) vs Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA)
Taking the mound for the Dodgers in this winner-take-all game five of the National League Division Series is rookie right-handed pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who looks to rebound after a rough start in game one of this series in which the righty went three innings and allowed five runs putting the Dodgers in a hole early.
However, in three starts this season, including the postseason, the San Diego Padres have scored thirteen runs in his nine innings, which is good for a 13.00 ERA.
In his last start during the game of this series, the Dodgers and their coaching staff believed that the Japanese righty could’ve been tipping his pitches. Roberts assured the media yesterday that they had cleaned that up, leading into tonight’s start.
“I think we’ve cleaned things up… as far as where Yoshinobu is at, I feel really comfortable.”
Another demon for Yamamoto this season has been the first inning, where the rookie has posted a 7.11 ERA in the first inning in nineteen starts.
In a series in which the Padres scored in the first inning in games one and two, Yamamoto will need to set the tone early and give the Dodgers a scoreless frame. If Yamamoto does struggle, the Dodgers bullpen, along with righty Jack Flaherty, will be available to help push the Dodgers to a game-five victory.
On the rubber for the San Diego Padres is 38-year-old veteran right-handed starter Yu Darvish. He has dominated the Dodgers throughout his career and did just that in game two of this series, pitching seven innings of one-run ball in a 10-2 Padres blowout win.
In fifteen starts against the Dodgers in Darvish’s career, the righty has a 5-5 record with a 2.27 ERA in 91.1 innings pitched. This season, he has been even better in three starts, collecting one win in three starts and 15.2 innings.
A key stat to watch is that this is just Darvish’s fifth start this season on four days rest, and in those games, he has been awful, posting a 6.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .905 OPS against. So expect the Dodgers to be aggressive in this one as they try to get the lead and ride the momentum early.
If Darvish does struggle, the Padres will also turn to their bullpen, which has been just as impressive as the Dodgers’ in this series. In their game four loss, they were able to avoid using key high-leverage arms such as left-handed pitcher Tanner Scott and righty Robert Suárez.
As a side note, it will also be the first time in Major League Baseball postseason history that two Japanese-born pitchers will start a game against each other.
Who to watch?
My player to watch in this one is Mookie Betts because, as we’ve seen in this series, the offense goes as Mookie goes. In their last two games, the Dodgers have scored thirteen runs, largely due to Betts going a combined 4-for-9 with two home runs and three RBIs.
In his career, Betts has faced a formidable opponent in Yu Darvish a lot, going 8-for-38 with five extra-base hits, including a home run, despite a weak OPS of .680. Despite this, Betts managed to hit a powerful pitch off Darvish in the bottom of the first inning of game two, only to have it stolen by Jurickson Profar, adding to the game’s tension early on.
The Dodgers’ victory hinges on a better performance against Darvish, and it all starts with the top third of their order. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman must step up for the Dodgers to secure a win.
For the Padres, Tanner Scott is the player to watch. His performance in the entire series, particularly his ability to keep Ohtani in check, has been crucial. If Scott and other high-leverage arms can continue to hold the Dodgers’ order at bay, it could significantly improve the Padres’ chances tonight to win this series.
Where to watch
The National League postseason will be exclusively broadcast on Fox Sports One (FS1) or Fox all the way up until the World Series.
Dodgers play-by-play broadcast announcer Joe Davis will join Atlanta Braves legend John Smoltz on the call, as this series will be broadcast by the primetime Fox baseball crew.
First pitch for game five is set for 5:08 PM PT at Chavez Ravine.
Betting Odds
Both teams enter Game 5 looking for a pivotal win and a spot in the NLCS. The Padres are listed as +123 moneyline underdogs in this matchup with the Dodgers (-146). Los Angeles (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The total for the matchup is set at 8 runs.
The Dodgers are favored at 54% in the win probability, while the Padres are viewed as the underdog at 46%.
Have you subscribed to the Bleed Los Podcast YouTube channel? Be sure to ring the notification bell to watch player interviews, participate in shows & promotions, and stay up to date on all Dodgers news and rumors!
