Cody Snavely
The first major domino of the offseason fell with the Phillies resigning their ace Aaron Nola to a seven-year 172 million dollar contract. The Dodgers, who were reportedly in the running for the Phillies ace, came up just short, but according to Bob Nightengale, the Dodgers have their eyes set on White Sox ace Dylan Cease.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in trade talks with the Chicago White Sox in an attempt to acquire ace Dylan Cease. The Dodgers badly need pitching help, and the White Sox badly need to rebuild their roster.
via Bob Nightengale CBS Sports
The Dodgers are desperate for dependable starting pitching, and a trade for Dylan Cease makes all the sense in the world, but as I have stated on the Bleed Lod Podcast, there are possible red flags with Cease moving forward.
Why a trade for Cease makes sense
The Dodgers need a frontline starter in their rotation. With Clayton Kershaw a free agent (possibly out all of 2024), Walker Buehler coming back from his second Tommy John Surgery, and the rest of the rotation being rounded out by first and second-year big leaguers in Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot we can see why the Dodgers have been aggressive this offseason so far. A trade for Dylan Cease would bring much-needed depth and stability to the rotation.
One of the most significant reasons why a trade for Dylan Cease is so appealing is that he is under team control for another two seasons, so unlike other pitchers on the trade market, such as Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers would have Cease for 2024, and 2025. While Cease had a down year to his standards in 2023, the White Sox pitcher has started every game for the team, leading the AL in 2023 with 33, which the Dodgers desperately need. Cease is also a big-time strikeout pitcher, having over 200 in three straight seasons.
Potential red flags?
Dylan Cease raises the most red flags for me regarding the potential arms available this winter via trade. In terms of pitching, Cease has struggled with one area in his MLB career: walks. Last year, he walked 79 batters and led the league in walks in 2022. Similar to the 2023 NL Cy Young winner, Blake Snell Cease has done an excellent job in limiting the damage, but in 2023, that was not the case as his ERA skyrocketed from 2.20 in 2022 to 4.58 in 2023. If the Dodgers’ pitching lab could limit his walk rate, then the team and the fans would feel a lot more confident in getting back to that Cy Young-level pitcher he was in 2022.
Another concern for Dylan Cease is that his elbow could be a ticking time bomb. In 2017, when Cease was a part of the Cubs organization, he went under the knife for his first Tommy John Surgery. On an episode of The Just Baseball Show, current Dodger Walker Buehler stated that guys who get the surgery usually have a shelf life of around seven years post-surgery until they need to be reevaluated. Doing the math that lines up Dylan Cease’s elbow will potentially be trouble in 2024. The Dodgers, who already have two pitchers on the IL with their own Tommy John Surgeries, along with Buehler returning from his second, can not afford Cease to go on the IL with any issues.
What could a trade look like?
Aside from the arm injuries and his command issues, a Cease trade will require the Dodgers to part way with a considerable chunk of major/minor league talent, as Cease on paper is extremely valuable due to the starting pitching market being thin and the White Sox in no position to trade him right now. However, current White Sox GM Chris Getz stated they would listen to all offers for their players. It seems likely that Cease will get traded.
Regarding a trade package, it depends on what route the White Sox would like to take for their rebuild. If they decide to go for a more prolonged rebuild, they could choose players from the Dodgers farm system who are 18-20 years old. If they plan to contend in 2025-26, they could ask for a mix of MLB-ready or near-ready prospects. Either way, the Dodgers have the prospects to get any deal done. However, some areas that the White Sox are rumored to be interested in are the corner infield and catching positions. With that said, here is my hypothetical trade scenario.
Dodgers receive: SP Dylan Cease (48.8)
White Sox receive: C Diego Cartaya, SP Landon Knack, 2B/3B/1B Michael Busch (51.6)
With how the pitching market is shaping out, the Dodgers will likely have to “overpay” slightly to get a deal done for Cease. The White Sox, who are short in the catching position, get Cartya, who has been touted as one of the best catchers in the Dodgers farm system. However, after a subpar 2023 minor league season, the Sox could pivot to Dalton Rushing, who is now the Dodger’s number two overall prospect in their system. As for Michael Busch, a trade has long been rumored as the Dodgers prospect has no room on the team as third is occupied by Max Muncy, first by Freddie Freeman, and Betts, Lux, and Rojas getting the bulk at second. Using Baseball Trave Values, this trade is accepted as a minor overpay, but it fills a need that both franchises need.
