Cody Snavely
With the offseason heating up, the Ohtani rumors will be flying around; however, a recent report from several sources indicates that Ohtani may take a short-term deal to re-enter the market as a complete two-way player.
There’s some growing buzz that Ohtani will want to answer this question by signing a shorter deal, then pitching in 2025 (and maybe 2026) before hitting the market again to cash in, but also maximize his earnings this winter. This would mean signing for something like a six-year deal at a high AAV (let’s say 55-60 million per year) with opt-out or two he intends on using.
Via Kiley McDaniel ESPN
For Ohtani, it is hard for many clubs to get a reasonable price on the free agent as there has never been a player quite as unique, and he also has red flags due to his second elbow surgery this past season. Before his surgery, many MLB insiders were throwing around 500-600 million for the two-way star, but now that number is fuzzier, and Ohtani and his camp will get creative this winter.
How does this impact the Dodgers?
During the Andrew Freidman era, the Dodgers have been reluctant to give away mega deals that lock a player past six years. The two exceptions to this were Mookie Betts (12-years 365 million) and Freddie Freeman (6-years 162 million), but other than that, no player on the Dodgers is under team control for more than 2-3 years. This method has allowed the Dodgers to be creative each offseason without dealing with the burden of a player eating massive amounts of money for years.
The Dodgers have expressed interest in star players on the free agent market before but with shorter high AAV deals such as the contract offered to Trevor Bauer, Bryce Harper, and potentially now Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers have no problem spending big dollars but want to do it on their terms where they feel comfortable, but it seems in recent years, the market has shifted back to longer deals. One team that has taken the reverse approach has been the Phillies, giving long-term contracts to Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and others.
Why it makes sense
For the Dodgers, a short-term high AAV deal is their way of paying a star for his prime and using that window to go full steam in hopes of reaching and winning the World Series. As mentioned, the Dodgers would rather not tie themselves to a player for over six years, as it can complicate roster construction.
For Ohtani, it allows him to restock his value, which took a hit after he was shut down on the mound due to another UCL injury that required surgery. It will be the second of his career, and he can only be a DH in 2024, impacting a potential payday. Ohtani, his whole career, has shown he is unpredictable and unique, and it would not surprise me that he takes this angle in free agency.
Conclusion
Until Ohtani inks a deal, the connection between him and the Dodgers will continue to grow, and with the offseason just getting started, expect the rumor mill to continue to have different takes on the two-way star.
