Roger Arrieta
By: Emilio Lacques-Zapien (Twitter: @EmilioLZ323)
The Kansas City Royals deserved to win the World Series. I wholeheartedly believed they were the overall best team in baseball from top to bottom all season. They did it with great defense, clutch hitting, a stellar bullpen, aggressive base-running, and an underrated starting pitching core. Attributes such as contact hitting, bullpen depth, fundamental fielding, and skilled base-running have been somewhat regarded as “lost art” in Major League Baseball. As we head into mid-November, the 2015-2016 Free Agent Frenzy season rapidly approaches. Will MLB clubs consider changing their approach and organizational philosophies after witnessing the Royals newfound success?
Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi of the Dodgers have their own questions to answer, and several pieces of the Dodgers complex roster to assemble this offseason. In their press conference following the departure of Don Mattingly, Friedman and Zaidi said they wanted to get younger as an organization, and that relationship-building and cohesion will be factors in all aspects of the team. They are also known to rely heavily on analytics. How will that play into their decision-making process? Here are five big questions they will need to address before Spring Training in 2016:
1. Who will take over as Dodgers Manager? In my last piece, I made the case that Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez is the best choice to become the Dodgers new Manager, with third base coach Ron Roenicke a close second. Former Dodgers Dave Roberts and Kirk Gibson have been recently rumored to receive interviews, joining University of Nebraska head coach Darin Erstad and Mets bench coach Bob Geren as other names that have emerged this week alone. The list of possible candidates has now grown closer to the size of a 25-man roster as each day passes. Others rumored to be in the mix include: Tim Wallach, Bud Black, Jason Varitek, Alex Cora, Eric Young, and Rocco Baldelli. This is an extensive search and a major decision that will obviously shape the Dodgers direction, leadership, and philosophies moving forward.
My Answer: Hire Martinez as Manager, keep Roenicke at third base, and hire Dave Roberts as a bench coach. This assemblage would give the Dodgers one of the most talented and diverse coaching staffs in all of baseball. Kapler should earn his stripes and continue to develop and mature as the Dodgers Director of Player Development.
2. How will the Dodgers fill out their Starting Pitching Rotation? As expected, Cy Young candidate Zack Greinke opted out of his contract with the Dodgers. He will hit the open market after a historic 2015 campaign, going 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA. Greinke led the National League in ERA, WAR, and on-base percentage allowed. Mark Saxon of ESPN outlines five teams who could pursue Greinke, including the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, Giants, and Diamondbacks. You can also never count out the Yankees and Red Sox, especially because both well-resourced clubs are in desperate need of a front line ace.
Brett Anderson was given a qualifying offer by L.A., but he is likely to sign with another club, presuming that his 2015 campaign boosted his value (10-9, 3.69 ERA.) Hyun Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy are both coming off serious injuries, so their dependability will be in question until proven otherwise. So as of now, it’s looking like Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, and a whole lot of of ifs and maybes. With top free agent starters David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Yovani Gallardo and Jeff Samarzidja hitting the open market, let the games begin.
My Answer: Let someone else pay Greinke until he’s 39. Sign Cueto (11-13, 3.44 ERA) or Zimmermann (13-10, 3.66 ERA) to replace him, and another less expensive righty such as Doug Fister (5-7, 4.19 ERA) or Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) on a short-term deal. If Ryu returns, the rotation will already consist of three lefties, not to mention southpaw Mexican teenager Julio Urias on the horizon, so the Dodgers are in desperate need of right-handed starters.
3. Who will be the starting second baseman on Opening Day? Howie Kendrick is a free agent and will most likely decline the Dodgers qualifying offer, leaving a gap to be filled up the middle. Howie provides stability and experience at second base. He was solid on both sides of the ball for (the real) L.A. (team) in 2015, hitting .295 with a .336 OBP and 64 runs scored. He also made only five errors all season. But will they re-sign him to a multi-year deal at age 32?
Venezuelan 21-year old rookie Jose Peraza is considered next in line to take that spot after batting .293 and stealing 33 bases in the minors last year. But how would he produce over the course of a full season? The Dodgers could also designate Enrique Hernandez (.307 AVG, 7 HR, 22 RBI) back to the infield in 2016.
World Series champion Ben Zobrist and Dodgers post-season nemesis Daniel Murphy are both available as well. Based on what we’ve heard, Zobrist’s age (about to turn 35) could deter them from offering him a multi-year deal, and Murphy might get over-paid after his playoff heroics.
Adrian Gonzalez, Kyle Seager, Justin Turner, and Yasmani Grandal are expected to be the Opening Day starters to round out the rest of the infield. Turner and Yaz both just underwent surgery, and the Dodgers will most likely need to add one or two more infielders for depth and insurance. Aging veterans Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are unlikely to re-sign.
My Answer: Offer Kendrick a two/three year deal at around $14 mill per season, and let him decide his future. If he walks, use both Peraza and Hernandez at second base next year. The kid deserves a shot, and Enrique would be able to see more time at his natural position. Peraza would add more speed and contact, two elements lacking in the 2015 lineup at times.
4. How will the Dodgers address the outfield? Once again the Dodgers are faced with a musical chairs of outfielders heading into the offseason. Unfortunately, many of the returners have question marks about their long term productivity. There are currently seven returning outfield candidates: Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, Enrique Hernandez, Carl Crawford, Scott Van Slyke, and rookie Scott Schebler.
They shipped Matt Kemp out to San Diego to help make room for Pederson, who was an All-Star in his rookie season. Then he seemingly went 0-for-the second half, finishing with a .210 batting average, lower than Zack Greinke’s. At the same time, it was refreshing for the Dodgers to finally have a pure, defensively skilled center fielder. The question remains-will they give up on Young Joc’s bat after just one season?
Puig was hurt for a massive chunk of 2015, and was mediocre at best when healthy (.255 AVG, 11 HR, 38 RBI.) His mechanics also looked messy upon his return at the end of the regular season. But similarly to Joc, Yasiel has a team-friendly contract, strong defense, and a high ceiling, so the Dodgers would probably only consider trading him for a robust return.
Andre Ethier finally performed well, batting .294 with 14 HR and 53 RBI. Well enough to be traded. But, unless the front office is confident that Pederson, Puig, Schebler, or unnamed free agent can provide necessary offensive thump in 2016, Ethier might be L.A.’s best hope for consistent offense again next year.
Free agents Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, and Alex Gordon can all hit, and Heyward and Gordon are considered the best defensive right and left fielders in all of baseball.
My Answer: Go hard after Heyward (.293 AVG, .359 OBP, 13 HR, 23 SB) and attempt to trade Ethier. The “J-Hey kid” is young, extremely gifted on both sides of the ball, and entering his prime. Give Schebler a shot to compete with Pederson and Puig for every day playing time. If they aren’t dealt, Crawford and Van Slyke could still serve as bench pieces or depth assets. Hernandez can still be used as a super-utility player. It’s also important to remember that injuries seem to be inevitable on this team.
5. How will the Dodgers bullpen look in 2016? The Dodgers bullpen was for the most part volatile and inconsistent in 2015. They finished 19th in baseball in bullpen ERA at 3.91, and 20th in opponent batting average at .249. The champion Royals finished first, holding opponents to just a .214 average.
Lefty reliever J.P. Howell picked up his player option and will remain a Dodger in 2016. Howell finished the season with a 6-1 record and 1.43 ERA, with 39 strikeouts and 14 walks in 44 innings. Along with closer Kenley Jansen, J.P. was one of the few dependable Dodgers out of the ‘pen for the whole season.
Power righty Chris Hatcher was a completely different pitcher in the second half, posting a 1.31 ERA with 26 strikeouts, only 6 walks, and an opponent batting average of just .178 in 20.2 innings. The Dodgers will cross their fingers that Hatcher can continue his late surge next season.
The rest of the 2015 bullpen is still under contract: Luis Avilan (L), Pedro Baez (R), Carlos Frias (R), Yimi Garcia (R) Juan Nicasio (R), and Ian Thomas (L). Righties Joel Peralta and Jim Johnson are gone. It’s not a group that instills a ton of confidence, so I would expect another flurry of moves from Friedman and Zaidi to reconstruct the relief core.
My Answer: Sign either Joakim Soria (3-1, 2.53 ERA), Darren O’Day (6-2, 1.52 ERA), or Shawn Kelley (2-2, 2.45 ERA), in that order. Soria and O’Day would fit nicely into a bullpen of predominantly power arms. The Dodgers could easily sign two or three righty relievers and let all of them battle it out with the returners in Spring Training, just like last year.
