Roger Arrieta
This isn’t the piece I sat down to write. Last week, before the lockout ended, I argued myself into thinking that the Dodgers would be fine if they let Clayton Kershaw walk away. I wasn’t in love with the idea, but I was convinced there was a player out there who was, if not comparable, an above replacement-level arm who could give us stats similar to Kershaw for a fraction of the price.
Then the miraculous happened. Sure, I had to jettison 900 words talking myself, and hopefully you, dear reader, into accepting that Kershaw was not the solution to our pitching situation. I still have doubts about his durability at the cost, but I’m thrilled he is returning.
But this piece isn’t about Kershaw. This is about the next player I think the Dodgers should target — Reds’ right-hander Luis Castillo. That piece I had to blast into orbit came to the conclusion that if we couldn’t/shouldn’t re-sign Kershaw, the ideal pitcher to replace him would be Castillo. It’s a little tricky because Castillo isn’t a free agent. The Dodgers would have to go to the Reds and offer something — and probably a decent something, in addition to some cash — for the 29 year old.
A quick comparison of Castillo and Kershaw should help set the stage for why the Dodgers should be eyeing the man who has one of the nastiest changeups in the league.
To be clear, I am not suggesting that Castillo is better than, or even equal to Kershaw. But I do think Castillo, who has featured as an ace in Cincinnati for the last three years, would be a superb No. 4 arm in the Dodgers rotation who would see some time as the No. 3 as we can bet the house that Kershaw will spend some time on the IL.
Castillo is a far from a perfect pitcher, who is unlikely to meet the ace upside many thought he had. The biggest problem for Castillo is control. The righty has a career 1.22 WHIP and 259 walks. Last year, Castillo had a career high 1.36 WHIP and led the majors with 75 walks. But there’s also massive potential. Castillo can be an innings eater when he gets his walks under control. He has hurled between 169 and 190 innings over the last four full seasons. The 2019 All Star has started 30 games in three of his five big league seasons. The two when he didn’t? His rookie season in 2017 and in 2020. Castillo led the majors in starts in 2021.
Since 2017, Kershaw has crushed Castillo in wins (59 to 40), ERA (2.80 to 3.72), and earned runs (216 to 292). But after drilling down, it looks like Castillo still offers great value. Castillo has thrown about 13 more innings over that span, started 10 more games, has a comparable WAR (14.7 to Kershaw’s 15.2), and an identical 162WL% of .512.
It also wouldn’t hurt Castillo to get out of Great American Ballpark — one of the worst pitchers’ parks in the league.
After fielding the first winning team since 2013 last year, it looks like the Reds are headed for a full-blown rebuild. As Bob Nightengale noted on Monday afternoon, the new CBA might have added a lottery draft to discourage teams from tanking, but, you know, the best laid plans and all of that.
The Reds are shipping players out left and right, and it looks like they’re trying to dump salaries too. Cincinnati has one more year of control with Castillo, who is set up to make about $7.5 million next year.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, have no concerns about spending money. They have one of, if not the best, farm systems in baseball and can afford to make a move to make sure their rotation has more depth than we’ve seen in recent years.
Right now, the rotation consists of Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, and Andrew Heaney. Trevor Bauer and everything that goes with him is lurking somewhere off stage. That’s a lights-out 1-2 punch, an obviously amazing potential No. 3, and then a whole lot of speculation at the back end.
Adding Castillo, even with all his foibles, shakes up that rotation in a big, big way.
The Reds look like they want to sell, it would behoove the Dodgers if they made sure Cincinnati knows they are looking to buy.
