PHOENIX — The Pirates’ Paul Skenes shut the book on his sophomore season Wednesday night with a tidy six scoreless in Cincinnati, polishing off a year that looks every bit like a Cy Young résumé: 1.97 ERA, 216 K, 0.95 WHIP, 187.2 IP. He even did it with style, striking out seven without a walk in his last outing. There’s no point pretending: Skenes is the heavy favorite to snag the hardware.
But if you’re ready to ink his name and move on, hold that pen. Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the mound today in Phoenix with a chance to put an exclamation point on a season that—quietly and relentlessly—has made this race tighter than a quick glance suggests.
The topline vs. the throughline
Skenes owns the shiny number (sub-2.00 ERA) that voters historically love. At the same time, Yamamoto’s full body of work paints a “closer than you think” picture:
- Opponent AVG: Yamamoto leads the National League at .183, best in the league; Skenes sits at .199. Run prevention starts with not allowing hard contact, and Yamamoto has been baseball’s toughest everyday starter to square up.
- WHIP: Yamamoto’s 0.99 is elite (and essentially peers with Skenes’ 0.95). That’s “traffic control” at a Cy-level standard.
- ERA: Yamamoto enters today at 2.58 (No. 3 NL), and he’s been trending down for a month. Since Sept. 1, he’s allowed 2 runs and 3 hits total across 21.0 IP (0.86 ERA), with 27 K. If he closes with another gem, his final line presses tighter against Skenes’ headline ERA.
- On the road: In harsh environments and neutral parks alike, Yamamoto has been better away from Dodger Stadium—2.26 ERA and 0.88 WHIP—edging Skenes’ 2.29/1.02 road marks. That’s a real separator when voters weigh context.
Value beyond the ERA
Modern ballots lean into context and quality, not just win–loss and raw ERA. Here’s where Yoshi gains ground:
- WAR picture: On FanGraphs’ NL WAR board, Skenes is near the top (~6.1 fWAR), but Yamamoto sits among the league’s most valuable arms too (~4.7 fWAR). That gap is meaningful—but not disqualifying—and it narrows when you consider run support and team context (more below).
- Run support drag: Yamamoto’s been pitching uphill all year. Among 119 pitchers with 18+ starts, he had the fourth-lowest run support while in the game; the Dodgers have actually hit .221/.306/.367 during his starts versus .261/.335/.456 otherwise. Said differently: he’s been elite without the cushion.
- September stakes: Voters remember what happens down the stretch. Yamamoto’s last three starts: 21.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 27 K—including back-to-back one-hitters taken deep into games. That’s a finishing kick.
The scouting-grade dominance
If ERA is the billboard, pitch-to-pitch dominance is the engine. Skenes has been a statistical sledgehammer all season—national outlets have called him the Cy front-runner for months, and league context underscores how rare his ERA is in this run-environment. (MLB.com even framed his chase for a sub-2.00 as historically significant, with Justin Verlander the most recent qualifier to do it in 2022.)
But Yamamoto has reasserted the swing-and-miss profile that made him a $325 million import. His Statcast page shows run-of-contact suppression (xwOBA in the mid-.260s and a low barrel rate), which tracks with that league-best opponents’ average. The shape of his arsenal—fastball/splitter/curve—has generated weak contact even when he’s not racking up double-digit strikeouts.
And while Thursday’s LA Times gamer rightly noted his one wobbly night (six walks vs. the Giants), even that outing ended with 5⅓ scoreless and a Dodgers win—reinforcing that Yamamoto has learned to win without his best command. Dave Roberts’ postgame characterization that night: competitive and re-rounding into All-Star form.
Context counts (and cuts both ways)
Skenes has carried a last-place club; he’s even said if the Pirates don’t learn from 2025, the year will have been “wasted.” That’s a revealing window into his mindset and the load he’s borne. The Washington Post/AP coverage made clear: awards talk isn’t what drives him—winning is—and his numbers have outpaced the Pirates’ offense most nights. That matters.
But don’t underrate the pressure cooker Yamamoto has pitched in. The Dodgers have needed their rotation to stabilize a mercurial offense and a leaky bullpen, and over the past month, MLB.com reported LA’s starters turned into “the best pitching staff in the game.” Yamamoto has been a pillar of that surge, and Roberts has openly talked about pushing his starters to prep for October. That’s where Yoshi’s efficiency uptick and deepening pitch counts show tangible, ballot-level value.
Other Contenders
None of this is to say that there aren’t other pitchers who have had great years in 2025. In fact, Paul Skenes doesn’t even lead the NL in WAR for pitchers (that honor goes the the Phillies’ Christopher Sanchez at 7.7). The Reds’ trio of Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, and Andrew Abbot have all pitched great this season, as have Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia. In addition, the Brewers’ Freddie Peralta continues to be one of the most overlooked aces in baseball. All these guys have WAR hovering around 5.0. Still, the steady excellence of Yoshinobu Yamamoto should not be ignored. Will he win? No. But damn, he’s been great this year.
What to watch today in Phoenix
- First-pitch strikes/efficiency. Roberts recently challenged Yamamoto to get strike one and be even more pitch-efficient. If he’s landing that early, he can work into the sixth/seventh and polish his rate stats.
- Chase/splitter depth. Arizona chases less than most; getting the splitter below the zone without over-nibbling is the balance he mastered in September. (His recent starts show the swing-and-miss is back.)
- Road warrior coda. With his 2.26 road ERA/0.88 WHIP, one more crisp line would cement the argument that his performance traveled as well as anyone’s in the league—Skenes included.
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