Skenes vs. Yamamoto: Why the NL Cy Young was actually closer than it seemed

PHOENIX — The Pirates’ Paul Skenes shut the book on his sophomore season Wednesday, collecting a Cy Young award that surprised abosolutely nobody. He was a uninamous choice given the résumé: 1.97 ERA, 216 K, 0.95 WHIP, 187.2 IP.

Finishing second was the Phillies’ Christopher Sanchez. Yoshinobu Yamamoto finished third, with no first place or second place votes. I’m sure he can look at his World Series MVP trophy to salve the disappointment a bit. However, if you will indulge me, I’d like to make the case that while Skenes deserved the hardware, Yamamoto’s second season in Dodger blue was almost as impressive. We’ll leave Sanchez out of the equation for a moment. I’m sure he’s off somewhere teaching Orion Kerkering how to throw home properly. Instead we’ll focus on Skenes vs. our boy Yoshi.

The topline vs. the throughline

Skenes owns the shiny number (sub-2.00 ERA) that voters historically love. At the same time, Yamamoto’s full body of work paints a “closer than you think” picture:

• Opponent AVG: Yamamoto led the National League at .183, best in the league; Skenes sits at .199. Run prevention starts with not allowing hard contact, and Yamamoto has been baseball’s toughest everyday starter to square up.
• WHIP: Yamamoto’s 0.99 is elite (and essentially peers with Skenes’ 0.95). That’s “traffic control” at a Cy-level standard.
• ERA: Yamamoto finished the year at 2.49 (No. 2 NL–and ahead of Sanchez I might add). That’s not even taking into account his heroics in October.
• On the road: In harsh environments and neutral parks alike, Yamamoto has been better away from Dodger Stadium—2.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP—edging Skenes’ 2.15/1.00 road marks. That’s a real separator when voters weigh context.

Value beyond the ERA

Modern ballots lean into context and quality, not just win–loss and raw ERA. Here’s where Yoshi gains ground:

• WAR picture: On FanGraphs’ NL WAR board, Skenes is near the top (~6.5 fWAR), but Yamamoto sits among the league’s most valuable arms too (~5.0 fWAR). That gap is meaningful—but not disqualifying—and it narrows when you consider run support and team context (more below).
• Run support drag: Yamamoto pitched uphill all year. Among 119 pitchers with 18+ starts, he had the fourth-lowest run support while in the game; the Dodgers have actually hit .221/.306/.367 during his starts versus .261/.335/.456 otherwise. Said differently: he’s been elite without the cushion.
• September stakes: Voters often remember what happens down the stretch. Yamamoto’s last four starts of the regular season: 27.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 27 K—including back-to-back one-hitters taken deep into games. That’s a finishing kick. However, it just wasn’t enough to overcome the extra innings pitched by both Skenes and Sanchez this season.

The scouting-grade dominance

If ERA is the billboard, pitch-to-pitch dominance is the what buys the trophy. Skenes has been a statistical sledgehammer all season—national outlets have called him the Cy front-runner for months, and league context underscores how rare his ERA is in this run-environment. (MLB.com even framed his chase for a sub-2.00 as historically significant, with Justin Verlander the most recent qualifier to do it in 2022.)

But Yamamoto reasserted the swing-and-miss profile that made him a $325 million import. His Statcast page shows run-of-contact suppression (xwOBA in the mid-.260s and a low barrel rate), which tracks with that league-best opponents’ average. The shape of his arsenal—fastball/splitter/curve—has generated weak contact even when he’s not racking up double-digit strikeouts.

Context counts (and cuts both ways)

Skenes has carried a last-place club; he’s even said if the Pirates don’t learn from 2025, the year will have been “wasted.” That’s a revealing window into his mindset and the load he’s borne. The Washington Post/AP coverage made clear: awards talk isn’t what drives him—winning is—and his numbers have outpaced the Pirates’ offense most nights. That matters.

But don’t underrate the pressure cooker Yamamoto has pitched in. The Dodgers have needed their rotation to stabilize a mercurial offense and a leaky bullpen, and over the past month, MLB.com reported LA’s starters turned into “the best pitching staff in the game.” Yamamoto has been a pillar of that surge, and he proved it in spades in his unbelievable postseason. Those numbers didn’t figure into the Cy Young voting, but they certainly figured into who got the ring and the parade this year.

Other Contenders

None of this is to say that there aren’t other pitchers whohad great years in 2025. The Reds’ trio of Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, and Andrew Abbot have all pitched great this season, as have Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia. In addition, the Brewers’ Freddie Peralta continues to be one of the most overlooked aces in baseball. All these guys had WAR hovering around 5.0. Still, the steady excellence of Yoshinobu Yamamoto should not be ignored. Did he win? No. But damn, he was great this year.

And Paul Skenes? Enjoy the trophy. Maybe someday, you’ll get the chance to pitch for a team that cares enough to put some players around you.

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