Roger Arrieta
With reports confirming this morning that Masahiro Tanaka has apparently decided to sign a 7-year $155 million (not including a $20 million posting fee) contract with the New York Yankees, fans likely began to wonder who might now be the most obvious candidate to fill the last remaining spot in the Dodgers’ 2014 starting pitching rotation. While losing out on Tanaka is certainly disappointing to a certain degree, a financial commitment of $175 million would have been a tough pill to swallow while in the midst of negotiating a contract extension with Hanley Ramirez, and after having already agreed to big-money extensions with Matt Kemp in 2011 ($160 million over 8 years) and Andre Ethier in 2012 ($85 million over 5 years), and of course, Clayton Kershaw just a few days ago ($215 million over 7 years). The Dodgers also signed Zack Greinke last off-season for $147 million over 6 years.
Barring injury, the Dodgers are certain to open the 2014 season with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu, and Dan Haren (most likely in that order). I don’t think that too many fans or neutral observers would disagree about that rotation, 1 through 4, being in the top 5 in MLB. In fact, ESPN’s Buster Olney had the Dodgers’ rotation ranked 2nd as recently as December 27th. The big mystery, as has often been the case with the Dodgers in recent seasons, is how they will fill that fifth spot.
For some context in terms of how meaningful that fifth spot actually is, I took a look back at the starting pitching rotations of the last 10 World Series champions. Since 2004, the Dodgers have had 4 starting pitchers make at least 20 starts each during the regular season only 4 times, and never during that same time period have they had 5 starting pitchers make at least 20 starts each (although they came close in 2004 and 2005). Not surprisingly, no World Series champion since 2004 has had less than 4 starting pitchers make at least 30 starts each, with the exception of the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, who had 3 starting pitchers make at least 30 starts each, and 3 other starting pitchers make at least 15 starts each. Only 4 of those 10 World Series champions had at least 5 starting pitchers make at least 20 starts each during the regular season. The take-away: any team that wants to have a legitimate shot at winning the World Series needs to have a solid top 4 starting pitching rotation, but having a fifth starter make at least 20 regular season starts is a luxury.
This would seem to support the wisdom of the Dodgers’ most likely current plan, which is to use Spring Training to see: what Josh Beckett has left in the tank, if Zach Lee is ready to jump up to the major league level, whether or not Stephen Fife has improved after having two relatively successful short-term stints in the Dodgers’ rotation in 2012 and 2013, or if any other prospect (e.g. Ross Stripling, Matt Magill) or non-roster invitee may be able to offer something of value. Not to be forgotten is Chad Billingsley, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, and is hoping to be back at full strength in May or June.
The Dodgers could end up having at least 6 legitimate options for that fifth spot in the rotation. With that in mind, doling out another long-term contract for a free agent such as Matt Garza or Ervin Santana doesn’t seem to make much sense. Similarly, giving an older innings-eater like Bronson Arroyo even a 3-year contract for somewhere in the $30 million range wouldn’t appear to put the Dodgers any closer to a World Series championship. Yes, there is always the David Price trade option (theoretically), but the quality and amount of prospects that Tampa Bay is rumored to be seeking makes that option just about cost-prohibitive.
Frankly, if just one of the aforementioned starting pitchers could give the Dodgers 10 quality starts, let’s say, until Billingsley is able to return, then would that really be such a disappointing fall-back option? Let’s not forget that Chad Billingsley had been considered one of the Dodgers’ best starting pitchers for 6 straight seasons before injuring his elbow. He’s also going to be motivated to show the Dodgers that he can regain his old form, so that they’ll seriously consider picking up his $14 million option for 2015 instead of buying him out for $3 million.
I know that most fans want to see the Dodgers go out and buy any and every free agent now that it’s become clear that money is no longer an issue, but when it comes to the 2014 starting pitching rotation, I think that the Dodgers have the right idea by standing pat with Tanaka no longer being an option. Of course, that mystery fifth spot in the rotation shouldn’t be too much of a mystery in about 6-7 weeks—so everyone’s just going to have to exercise a little bit of patience!
