Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — Well, here we are, rounding the clubhouse turn. This weekend, the Dodgers hit the 40-game mark, and find themselves in a familiar position: atop the National League West. As this is roughly 25% of the season, it’s useful to look at where we’ve been and look forward to what might be coming in the final three-quarters of the year.
Dodgers’ Record after 40 Games: 26-14
It was kind of a weird way to get there, but the Dodgers’ record after 40 games is right where we hoped it would be. After a strong start, they scuffled horribly in a very winnable home stand, but then went on a tear that saw them taking control of the division long before Memorial Day. Their 26-14 mark puts them on a pace to win 104 games. For comparison, it might be a good idea to look at previous teams of the past few years and where they stood at this point of the season.
So as you see, the record is essentially right in line where the Dodgers have been at this point in the season the last five years (the weird 2020 excepted). So, it’s not an unreasonable assumption to believe that this Dodgers team is headed for yet another NL West crown, its third in a row and eleventh out of the last twelve seasons. Consider that box checked.
MVP of the first 40 games: Mookie or Shohei?
The great thing about having both of these dudes at the top of your lineup is that if one gets cold, there is sure to be someone else around to pick up the slack. Mookie Betts burst out of the gate with one of his otherworldly hot streaks, but is only hitting .281 without much slug over the last fifteen games. In fact, he’s only hit one home run in the last 30 games. He’ll heat up again soon enough, and then this whole crazy boom or bust cycle will start again. Shohei Ohtani on the other hand had a bit of a slow start when all the Ippei craziness was going on, but has performed at a high level ever since. One thing that Shohei has shown in this first stretch of the season is how truly hitter-ish he can be. He’s not just a three-true outcomes guy. He’s hitting for average, going the other way, ripping 100-mph singles off the bat. Now if he could just pick it up with runners in scoring position a bit, he’d be having a perfect season. And that doesn’t even take into account the other half of the Dodgers’ “Big Four,” Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, who would probably be the MVP of half a dozen other teams were it not for the big dogs at the top of the lineup.
Ace of the staff: Tyler Glasnow
No shock here, though it has been a pleasant surprise to see just how dominant a healthy Tyler Glasnow can be. He’s 6-1 with a best-in-baseball 73 strikeouts and a fantastic 2.53 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. That, my friends is an ace. He had one clunker start when he wasn’t feeling well, but other than that it’s been money every time he’s stepped on the mound. However, it’s not only been Glasnow that we have to thank for the excellent starting pitching this year at Chavez Ravine. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has left that disaster in Korea far behind him. Gavin Stone is pitching up to his potential. James Paxton seems to be finally dialed in. And, we’ve just gotten Walker Buehler back. Throw a recuperated Bobby Miller and Clayton Kershaw into the mix and suddenly, you’ve got the makings of a fantastic rotation, however manager Dave Roberts chooses to slice it up.
Pleasant Surprises: Hernandez’s bat, Muncy’s glove
I wasn’t that jazzed when the Dodgers signed Teoscar Hernandez, given his lackluster season in 2023 with the Mariners. He still strikes out a bunch, but his slug and clutch hitting has made that shortcoming easier to forgive. Max Muncy, in addition to being a great power bat in the middle of the lineup, has really worked to improve as a third baseman this season, even though it’s probably not his best natural position. But with Freeman at first and Ohtani the DH, Muncy’s only way to get consistent playing time is to make himself useful at the hot corner. And he has done more than that. He’s still not going to win any Gold Gloves, but his defense has been well above average. In fact, the entire infield has looked pretty damn solid so far, which is saying something given the turmoil that surrounded it this spring. We should also give a shout out to Miguel Rojas, who has gone far beyond being a good fielder, and contributed quite a bit at the plate. All in all, good work around the diamond.
Best-looking prospect: Andy Pages
It got off to a rough start, but Andy Pages‘s big league career is progressing quite nicely, thank you very much. He’s hitting around .300 with an OPS north of .800. Those are great numbers for a veteran, much less a mid-season call-up. He’s got some rookie mistakes in him still, but overall it’s been a great start to his 2024. In addition to the aforementioned Gavin Stone, Michael Grove seems to have turned a corner and is contributing on a more regular basis, so the Oklahoma City Baseball Club is going to have to wait a while before any of these guys returns to the lineup.
Room for Improvement: Kiké, Lux, Taylor, Outman
Though it’s gotten better lately, the 7-9 spots in the batting order have been probably the biggest area that could use some improvement once we hit the summer. Each of these four players have an OPS+ well below the league average 100. Kiké Hernandez is 52, James Outman is 51, Gavin Lux is 43, and Chris Taylor is an abysmal -16. That is just not good enough for what the Dodgers want to be this year. If these guys keep playing like this, I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them aren’t around by the fall. It’s a cruel reality, but that’s baseball. In addition, teamwide, the Dodgers need to do a better job of hitting with men on base, especially with runners in scoring position. Their OPS with RISP is only .772, pretty much the middle of the pack in the big leagues. Clutch hitting wins games in October. Pick it up, boys.
Most welcome comeback: Blake Treinen
I get it that Blake Treinen as a person is not everyone’s cup of tea. But as a pitcher, good lord, this guy is nasty. I didn’t realize how much I missed the filth that emanated from his right arm until I saw it again. So far, the Blake Train has been absolutely lights out, sending opposing players back to the bat rack shaking their heads in disbelief about his nasty slider and wicked sinker. If this level of Treinen is sustainable, this bullpen will be unstoppable. In addition, how about a big welcome back to the better version of Alex Vesia, who has been solid from the left side after being pretty frustrating for a lot of last year.
Much love to the bullpen
And speaking of the bullpen, bigtime kudos to Evan Phillips who in his quiet, Evan Phillips way has put up spectactular numbers as the Dodgers’ closer this year. His 0.66 ERA and 8-for-8 in save opportunities converted is a big reason why the Dodgers’ pen has been so lethal as the calendar has turned to May. As of this writing, the Dodgers’ bullpen ERA of 3.20 is second in the National League, trailing only Edwin Diaz and the New York Mets. It’s going to be great when the pen is back at full strength with the return of Phillips, Graterol, Hurt and others, but for now, so far, so good.
Conclusion: Dodgers are good at baseball
Right now, the Dodgers death star is almost fully operational. Their run differential as of today is +78, the best in best in baseball by quite a bit. And, they are starting to put some space between themselves and the rest of the division. Andrew Friedman’s evil plan for world domination is off to a good start. But as nice as wins in April and May are, we all know that this team has one goal in mind, a certain piece of metal that has eluded them these last four frustrating seasons. This team was built for October baseball. That’s where this work in the early going will pay off.
Can’t wait to celebrate the team’s successes the rest of the way.
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