Three X-Factors for Dodgers To Beat Mets In Game #5

The National League Division Series comes down to a game #5 showdown between Zack Greinke and Jacob deGrom.What an epic series so far, right? Kershaw shut down the Mets at Citi Field, silencing naysayers who have questioned his ability to pitch like an MVP in the post season.  Last week, I predicted that the Dodgers would win the series in four games. I was wrong about the length of the series, but my “X-Factors” have been prevalent all series long.

1. Justin Turner has come back to absolutely crush his former club, hitting a whopping  .467 with four doubles and three RBI in four games.  The Red Mamba will need to give his club one or two more big hits to get the Dodgers on the board against fire-baller deGrom.
2. Chris Hatcher has been chosen by Mattingly as the setup-man to get the ball to closer Kenley Jansen in this series. Hatcher recorded two outs and surrendered a walk in the crucial eighth inning of game #4, before being relieved by Jansen for the four-out save. He looked solid, and threw the ball 98 mph consistently.
3. Corey Seager has been an X-factor for his defense in the middle of the diamond in this series. He has looked smooth and confident, being able to really “slow the game down” in big spots. His poise for a 21-year old is impressive. But can the rookie catch up with deGrom’s fastball in game #5?
4. Carl Crawford has been bad. He might get one more shot off the bench, pinch hitting late in the game against a right-handed pitcher.

L.A. Dodgers Game #5 lineup:

1. Kendrick 2B
2. Seager SS
3. Gonzalez 1B
4. Turner 3B
5. Ethier RF
6. Grandal C
7. Hernandez LF
8. Pederson CF
9. Greinke P

N.Y. Mets Lineup:

1. Granderson RF
2. Wright 3B
3. Murphy 2B
4. Cespedes CF
5. Duda 1B
6. d’Arnaud C
7. Conforto LF
8. Flores SS
9. deGrom P

I believe if these three things happen, the Dodgers will pull out a clutch win at Chavez Ravine tonight to advance to the NLCS against the Chicago Cubs.

1. Greinke out-duels deGrom. Kershaw admitted that deGrom simply “out-pitched him” as the Mets won game 1 in L.A. deGrom tossed seven shutout innings, giving up just five hits and striking out a whopping 13 batters. Greinke should win the Cy Young this year. Greinke had the lowest ERA in Major League Baseball at 1.66. This could be his last start as a Dodger is he opts out of his contract. Everything is at stake.
2. Unsung heroes. deGrom and d’Arnaud will undoubtedly have a precise game plan for the Dodgers big bats-Gonzalez, Turner, Ethier, Seager. In big post season games, many times it’s a role player that rises to the occasion. The Dodgers will need one of these other guys to deliver in a clutch spot for a big hit or two to win game #5: Grandal, Pederson, Utley, Rollins, or Crawford.
3. Lockdown bullpen. The ‘pen has been the biggest question mark and sore spot for most of the Dodgers’ overall successful season. Mattingly’s questonable decision to bring in Pedro Baez in the 7th inning of game #1 with the bases loaded and two outs backfired, as he gave up a two-RBI single to veteran David Wright. Starting pitcher Alex Wood got absolutely rocked out of the bullpen in game #3, giving up six runs in just two innings, including a blast by Yoenis Cespedes that I don’t think has landed yet. In game #4, Hatcher and Jansen escaped trouble and shut the door on the Mets in an elimination game on the road for a 3-1 victory. Mattingly should stick to our three best horses out of the ‘pen tonight-J.P. Howell, Chris Hatcher, and Kenley Jansen. If you see anyone else, close your eyes and pray to the baseball gods.

The final X-Factor for tonight is us, the fans. If you happened to catch any of the Blue Jays vs. Rangers game #5 in Toronto, the mayhem and immense amount of decibels created by the raucous Rogers Centre crowd definitely had an impact on the Texas defense and pitchers. Let’s #RockTheRavine tonight!

Emilio Lacques-Zapien is a Dodgers Beat Writer with the Carson Courier and www.DodgersBeat.com. He is 27 years old, born in Hollywood and raised in Mid-City L.A. His favorite Dodger is Adrian Gonzalez, and he can teach you how to dougie. Continue the conversation with him on Twitter: @EmilioLZ323