Roger Arrieta
We are a little more than a quarter of the way through the season and things are looking good. The division race is tight, but the underlying numbers buoying our first place position bode well.
The Dodgers’ league-leading offense (5.29 runs per game) combined with a No. 2 ranked team ERA (3.07) have combined to make them a force to be reckoned with. Overall, the Dodgers are dominating the runs differential standings, having scored 109 more runs than their opponents, only one other team, the Yankees, have also scored more than 100 runs, with the Mets ranking No. 3 at a differential of +68.
A couple of weeks ago, Steve gave us a nice rundown of what we’ve seen from our pitching staff this year. It’s been… mostly good. Surprising performances from Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson have made up for the surprising struggles of Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. Our aces haven’t been bad by any measure, but they have not been nearly as dominant as we thought they would be.
Which brings us to Clayton Kershaw. The former ace takes the mound tonight after missing almost a month on the IL. So what should we expect from the 34-year-old?
Nothing less than dominance, if this years’ trends continue to hold. It’s easy to forget how good Kershaw has been this year, as we haven’t seen much of him. But in 5 starts, he has 4 wins and 32 Ks over 30 innings. And his 1.80 ERA would be good for No. 4 in the league if he had enough innings to qualify.
In his first start of the year, Kershaw was perfect through 7 innings. Watching that game, there was some part of most fans that wanted to see him slip so Dave Roberts could pull him without poisoning what might have been his last shot at perfection. Of course, Roberts gave Kershaw the hook anyway. No sense in putting the injury-prone ace in danger after just one start.
It turns out that call was probably for the best. Kershaw’s next start, against the Atlanta Braves, was his worst of the season. Over just 5 innings, Kershaw gave up 2 home runs, and 4 runs total.
Over the next 3 starts, Kershaw turned in solid performances against the Padres, Tigers, and Cubs before landing on the IL.
As he goes up against the rival Giants in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park we should see more of the same.
Kershaw isn’t going to overpower hitters, but he isn’t letting them hurt him either. The underlying figures say that Kershaw is every bit as good as he’s looked. He might be outperforming is xWOBA (.268) with a .213 WOBA, but both of those marks are in the top 9% and 3% of the league respectively.
And while Kershaw likes to live outside of the strike zone, he’s making it work. He’s in the 91st percentile in chase rate this year and has a 2.8% walk rate.
The only place Kershaw seems to struggle is with his fastball velocity (14th percentile). That fastball is a bit of a mixed bag. While he’s only allowing a .176 batting average on the pitch, it has an xBA of .266 and an xSLG of .349. To negate some of the danger, Kershaw is leaning on his slider 45% of the time, a pitch he’s allowing a .160 average on, with an xBA of .203 and an xSLG of .277.
There’s always some concern about a pitcher coming back from an IL stint. Pitching against minor leaguers, in a simulated game, or a bullpen session isn’t the same as facing big-league talent. But Kershaw isn’t only a veteran, but the best pitcher of the last decade. He’s been on and off the IL before and by this point in his career knows how to manage the changes. And that perfect start to the season came after a light spring training.
If the Dodgers want to get back to the World Series this year they’re going to need a healthy pitching staff. This IL stint will unlikely be Kershaw’s last this year, but as he comes back, we can expect to see an outing as dominant as ever.
