Roger Arrieta
The Dodgers have a very good problem heading into the 2015.They have too many talented outfielders! This might sound familiar, because it was the same problem they had, heading into the 2014 season. The difference this season, there will be two other players added to the mix. Joc Pederson as well as Scott Van Slyke will be competing for spots in the outfield. The good thing about Van Slyke is he can also play first base, so at this point, I consider him more of a utility player/bat off the bench. What then, are the Dodgers to do with their abundance of outfield talent? My theory is, a team can never have too much talent, or depth.
Let us take a look at last season. The Dodgers were said to have an abundance of starting pitching. What happens next? Clayton Kershaw misses six weeks of the season. Ryu missed a stretch of four weeks, then another 3 weeks. Josh Beckett overachieves, throws a no hitter, and then misses the second half. Chad Billingsley (who was supposed to be back mid-season) ends up not coming back at all. Paul Maholm who was a fill-in starter, also gets injured, and before we know it, the Dodgers are scouring the trade market to fill their depot. They ended up picking up pitchersRoberto Hernandez and Kevin Correia to replace production from those pitchers that were injured.
While the Dodgers were juggling four outfielders; Puig, Kemp, Ethier, and Crawford, and Van Slyke proved to be very valuable vs. left handed starters, there weren’t a lot of times when all four outfielders were healthy and available. This “problem” resulted in the Dodgers winning 94 games last season, despite rumors and rumblings of players being unhappy. If there were players unhappy, it certainly didn’t translate to on field performance. There isn’t one organization who wouldn’t take a 94 win season. Sure 94 wins doesn’t guarantee anything, but in most cases it will surely get a team into the playoffs, and as we learned this past season, the team that wins the most games in the regular season isn’t assured anything in the post season(see the Angels and Nationals from this season).
The “problem” the Dodgers have this season, is they have one of their top prospects, Joc Pederson (an outfielder) who looks to be major league ready, banging on the door to crack to major league roster. He plays a great defensive center field, and while the erratic, reckless, and sometimes head scratching outfield play of Puig (who indeed has the speed and most definitely the arm to play CF) was given the nod in center field last season, I believe the Dodgers would prefer to have a more pure center fielder running the outfield. The problem this presents is, while Pederson is defensively ready to be a major league centerfielder, there is no indication he is ready offensively. While he is a career .302 hitter in the minor leagues, and hit .303 at AAA Albuquerque with 33 HR’s, those are still minor league numbers, not major league ones. Those are numbers that he put up are in the PCL, which is notorious for giving players inflated offensive statistics. During his September call up, Pederson hit .143, going a limited 4 for 28. He did draw 9 walks, which gave him a .351 OBP, but also struck out 11 times. There can be something said for rushing a player to the majors too quickly, but Pederson has made the necessary stops, so his time has indeed come. The question is, do the Dodgers hand the reigns in CF over to him, or do they allow him to transition into the role? What Puig, and Kemp have as an advantage is they are both right handed hitters, which make them less vulnerable to left handed pitchers. It seemed almost certain last season that Crawford and/or Ethier would sit vs. left handed starters, and Pederson too is left handed, which only adds to the puzzlement.
Kemps performance last season, especially in the second half, makes him the most valuable trade option of the outfielders, but it is that very reason, he is just as valuable to the Dodgers. Of the three outfielders in question (Kemp, Crawford, and Eithier), Kemp has the most talent/ability. He hits for power, he hits for the higher average of the three, and drives in the most runs. Defensively, Kemp was off to a shaky start last season. He had to regain his rhythm when it came to judging fly balls, as he spent most of the previous two seasons on the DL.. He also had to get the strength in his legs back, which was obvious by the way he wasn’t able to get to certain balls he did in the past. As he moved to right field, Kemp was noticeably able to get better jumps, and appeared to be gaining his leg strength back, and he even admitted it was still a work in progress as the Dodgers got deeper into the season. Kemp also has a better throwing arm of the three, and I believe with a full season under his belt, he will return in 2015 at full strength. He alsolooked more like the player who finished 2014 hotter than anyone, than the one who missed most of 2012 and 2013. The fact is, when Matt Kemp is healthy, see 2011, or April 2012, or July-Sept 2014, he is one of the best players in the major leagues. A franchise who wants to be a contender year in, and year out should never trade one of the best players in baseball, period. Off the field, Kemp is one of the more vocal/emotional leaders on the team, and those are intangibles that can go a long way over the course of a 162 regular season. Kemp also is a right handed hitter, and as I mentioned earlier, doesn’t need to be platooned against righties or lefties, and gives right handed protection for Adrian Gonzalez who led the league in RBI last season. With the potential hole in the line up being left by right handed hitter Hanley Ramirez in the middle of the order, it would make no sense to trade away one of the Dodgers most productive bats in Kemp.
This still begs the question, do the Dodgers trade one of their outfielders? I say no, but most likely they will trade one of them. I believe the players in question are Ethier and Crawford, but I’m betting there are also teams who would be very interested in Joc Pederson, making this off season even more intriguing. While the Dodgers were reluctant to part with him last season at the trade deadline, they now have a cornucopia of new office executives who may very well find a way to make a Pederson trade a more viable option. The fact of the matter is, Crawford is owed over 20 million/season through 2017, Eithier is owed 18 million/season through 2017, so the Dodgers would most likely have to pick up a good portion of the salary of either player should they trade him, which is what appears to be the case anyway. For good measure, Kemp is also owed about 21 million/season through 2019. Based on performance, Kemp is the only player who is playing up to his contract of the three, which is precisely why the Dodgers should keep him. Pederson would seem to be a more valuable trade piece because he is younger, and owed much less money, therefore more appealing to potential suitors. The question is, what can the Dodgers get in return?
The holes the Dodgers need to fill as the roster currently stands are; a #4 or 5 starter (Haren is set up to be #4 or 5 at the moment), bullpen help (as that is one of the main reasons the Dodgers were ousted by the Cardinals this post season), and a shortstop (assuming Hanley Ramirez isn’t coming back, which by rejecting the Dodgers qualifying offer, and changing his twitter handle from Dodgers shortstop to MLB shortstop, seems pretty clear). If it were up to me, I would entertain offers for Pederson if the return filled one of those holes. The reason being, we know what we are going to get out of Crawford, Ethier, and Kemp, and still have Van Slyke who is more than capable of playing off the bench once or twice a week or more, and against lefties. Having proven hitters like Ethier and Crawford on the bench in the late innings, makes the Dodgers a much more dangerous team. Ethier is 32, Crawford is 33, so it is in the Dodgers best interest to have them rest here and there anyway. Last season, Ethier was the odd man out, so if they were all still on the roster, I would assume that would again be the case this season. Yes 18 million/ year is a lot to pay a bench player, but as I mentioned, there probably aren’t many teams who would take that contract.
My thought is the Dodgers will trade one of the three Ethier, Crawford, or Pederson, but not Kemp. They will make the choice that best helps the franchise this season, and moving forward. There are a lot of variables to consider, and the decision won’t be an easy one. Luckily there is a whole front office full of new baseball minds, who were handpicked from different organizations to make decisions just like this. Here come the winter meetings.
