Cody Snavely
The Dodgers close out the 2023 regular season against the San Francisco Giants, with the Postseason beginning on Saturday against the winner of the Brewers matchup with the likely Miami Marlins. While the Dodgers coasted to yet another NL West title and a postseason berth, the team still has a few concerns/questions to be answered. However, three x-factors will decide how far this team goes this October.
Clayton Kershaw
Let us start with the obvious: the health and availability of Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw, who was in the ladder half of his career, has battled numerous injuries with his arm, back, and, this time, shoulder, is a huge question mark for the Dodgers as the postseason looms ahead. The biggest concern for Kershaw since coming back from a month off due to a shoulder injury is his velocity, which has now dipped below 90 MPH. While Kershaw has emphasized that he is fine and that the dip in velocity is not health-related, many are not falling for that excuse.
Despite Kershaw’s diminished velocity, he has been an elite pitcher this season, posting a 2.03 ERA since the All-Star break. Despite a lousy start in Miami nearly a month ago, he has had excellent command. However, if the Dodgers are to go marching to the World Series, that equation will involve Kershaw pitching well, and the adage goes, the Dodgers go as far as Kershaw does. However, expect the workload management to be a factor, with Kershaw likely going 4-5 innings this time.
The Dodgers clearly have a plan in place with Kershaw, which involves another conundrum that the Dodgers have to face: their bullpen and how they intend to use it. Although, in Kershaw’s case, expect starters such as Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot to get the ball after the lefty as they have done already this past month.
Will Smith
At the start of the season, Will Smith was an early candidate for the MVP, as most fans could argue with an OPS of .889 in the first half. However, with the catching position comes a cost to the player’s health in terms of injury and offensive production, and Will Smith became a part of this trend as well. After a concussion and recently revealed fractured rib, Will Smith has been a completely different player in the 2nd half. Most Dodgers fans did not notice Smith’s dip in production as players like Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and J. D. Martinez have carried the offense.
What is also interesting from Will Smith this season is his expected batting average of balls put in play, as he has an xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-base Average) of .353. Simply put, Smith also has been extremely unlucky. Entering the series with the Giants prior to his 2-run HR in game two, Smith was hitting a measly .195 in his last 20 games. When healthy, Smith is clearly a top-three catcher in the league, and the Dodgers will need his bat this October. However, the idea of moving up J. D. Martinez to the three-hole seems that the Dodgers are more comfortable with Smith staying there.
Dodgers Bullpen
What a difference a few months makes as at the beginning of the season, the Dodgers bullpen was historically bad, but since then, they have been one of the best in the league. Entering June, the Dodgers bullpen had an ERA over five, but since then, in the 2nd half, they have posted the 3rd best ERA in the league with a 3.74. However, what started as a bullpen problem turned into an injury problem with the starting rotation, with the Dodgers only having three startable options in Kershaw, Bobby Miller, and Lance Lynn.
This changes the outlook for the bullpen come October, and we have already seen the potential plan after games one and two, which are bullpen games. The Dodgers, since 2019, are not shy to trying bullpen games, whether it is with an opener or just a straight 6-7 pitcher type of game, but this October, they can go a few ways. The most logical one is the idea of an opener and letting young starters Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot come in for the “bulk” of the game. This strategy has worked so far in the regular season, as both mentioned rookie starters have looked excellent in the pen.
The Dodgers will have to depend on the bullpen this October, which is a scary thought as it means more pressure on Dave Roberts to make the right moves and ensure these pitchers are not overexposed in a five or seven-game series.
