Cody Snavely
One area that needs little change entering the 2024 season is the bullpen, which, entering the offseason, is one of the best groups in the league.
However, that was not the case at the start of the 2023 regular season, as the Dodgers’ bullpen was historically bad. Posting a collective 4.77 ERA, it ranked 26th in the MLB entering June.
With Ryan Brasier‘s arrival in the second half of the season, the bullpen issues corrected themselves. They proved to be a big piece, especially in October, keeping all three games close.
But a new season brings new questions, and with a position as volatile as relief pitching, what can we expect from the Dodgers’ bullpen’s high-leverage arms?
Mariachi Joe returns to the backend of the bullpen for LA
The Los Angeles Dodgers, who were desperate for starting pitching at the 2023 trade deadline, acquired two arms from the White Sox.
The Dodgers got two right-handed arms, one for the rotation in Lance Lynn and one for the bullpen, bringing back fan favorite Joe Kelly.
In his return to LA, Kelly posted great numbers, having a 1.74 ERA, although he only pitched 10.1 innings due to an elbow injury.
At the end of the season, the Dodgers declined his 9.5 million dollar club option, opting for the one million dollar buyout. However, the team would re-sign him a month later for a 1-year deal.
Kelly, who still has the high velocity to be a high-leverage arm, still struggles with command, as his new number 99 jersey would suggest he is indeed a “wild thing.”
Kelly’s role for the 2024 season will primarily depend on his production. If he struggles early, the Dodgers will likely favor him in lower-leverage situations.
Per FanGraphs, Kelly is projected to appear in 61 games with a 3.79 ERA and 30.1 K%.
Can Graterol replicate 2023 success?
One of the most valuable arms in the Dodgers bullpen in 2023 was Brusdar Graterol, who had a career year posting a 1.20 ERA in 67.1 innings.
Graterol, acquired from the Twins in the 2019/2020 MLB offseason, was profiled as potentially the Dodgers’ future closer, although that plan seems to have vanished.
While Graterol has the skills to be a high-percentage strikeout pitcher, the right-handed flamethrower has struggled to put the ball past the barrel, a downward trend that continued in 2023.
Graterol, in his rookie year during the 2019 season, posted a 9.3 K/9, which has gone down each season to a career-low 6.4 in 2023.
Despite all that, Graterol found his rhythm with his sinker, which allowed him to limit baserunners and get out of traffic. The Dodgers in 2024 will need to depend on Grateol in the 6th inning or later, hopefully adding improvement to his strikeout percentage.
FanGraphs has Graterol returning to his old habits in 2024, posting a 3.67 ERA in 64 innings.
Is Brasier the new Dodgers setup man?
In typical Dodgers fashion, a key player to their team was a player that was cast away or forgotten by their former club.
The latest player to revitalize their career with the Dodgers is relief pitcher Ryan Brasier, who posted a 7.29 ERA with the Red Sox before he was DFA’d.
However, once the Dodgers claimed Brasier, the righty reinvented himself. In the second half of 2023, Brasier pitched 38.2 innings with the team, only giving up three runs to close out his dominant Dodgers tenure.
After a lengthy offseason of waiting, the Dodgers and Brasier will continue their partnership, finally agreeing to a 2-year $9 million deal.
With Evan Phillips likely to be the Dodgers primary closer yet again for 2024, they need a proper setup man to put in the 8th inning or when the stakes are at the highest. In 2023, Brasier was that man, but can he replicate that success?
Due to his age and the erratic nature of the Dodgers’ bullpen arms, Brasier is likely to experience some regression. However, even if there is regression, plenty of arms are in the bullpen to help lessen the blow.
FanGraphs agrees, projecting Brasier to pitch 62 innings with a 4.22 ERA and a lower K% at 22.8.
The return of Hudson and Treinen?
Due to health issues, the Dodgers have not been able to count on two names: Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen.
Hudson, who will be turning 37 in March, is coming off nearly two lost seasons after an ACL injury in 2022 and an MCL injury in 2023, which also ended his season.
When Hudson is on the field, he was dominant for the Dodgers before his injury. The RHP posted 24 1/3 innings during 2022 with a 2.22 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate, and 53.4% ground ball rate. He was so impressive that the Dodgers extended him into 2023 after his torn ACL.
The Dodgers declined the $6.5 million club option, opting to re-sign him to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. However, Dave Roberts already assured that Hudson will be on the Opening Day roster.
Similar to Hudson, Blake Treinen has also dealt with the injury bug. He missed 2022 and 2023 due to shoulder surgery. The Dodgers decided to pick up Treinen’s club option for $1 million in November.
From 2020-2021, Treinen posted a 2.48 ERA, 107 SO, 2.95 FIP, 1.041 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, and a 3.24 SO/W in 98 IP.
The most significant question mark for both parties is whether they can play an entire season, but if they can, they will be vital pieces to the Dodgers’ bullpen.
Per FanGraphs, Husdon is projected to have a 4.08 ERA in 54 innings, while Treinen is projected to have a 4.08 ERA in 58 innings.
Can Vesia return to the 2021 form?
Perhaps the biggest key for the Dodgers bullpen is Alex Vesia, who is currently the primary lefty specialist.
The Dodgers, who acquired Vesia during the 2021 season, were very surprised, as he exceeded all expectations, posting a 2.25 ERA, 189 ERA+, and 12.2 K/9 in 40 innings.
However, the last two seasons have not been too kind to Vesia, who has seen all his numbers rise from that dominant 2021 season.
From 2022-2023, Vesia pitched 104 innings with a 3.20 ERA, 131 ERA=, 2.85 FIP, and 12.4 K/9, but with 2023 being the worst, posting an ERA over 4.00.
Over the offseason, I was so invested in the idea of Josh Hader because he was a dominant left-handed specialist in the bullpen. With teams like the Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Braves having plenty of left-handed batters, it will be vital for Vesia to return to his old ways.
FanGraphs Vesia is projected to pitch 60 innings with a 3.82 ERA and a 30.3 SO%.
The Dodgers’ high-leverage relief options could be among the best in baseball, and the back end of games, with the combination of any of these arms paving the way to Phillips in the 9th, will be brutal for any opposing team to beat.
However, there are question marks with health and regression, which makes me worry about the dependability, especially down the stretch.
DODGERSBEAT GRADE: B-
Have you subscribed to the Bleed Los Podcast YouTube channel? Be sure to ring the notification bell to watch player interviews, participate in shows & promotions, and stay up to date on all Dodgers news and rumors!
