Steve Webb
After looking at the impressive pile of talent in the rotation in the last preview post, let’s move on to the one area that makes us a little nervous as the Dodgers begin their quest to repeat: the bullpen. There were a lot of moves made during the winter, and the pen will be sure to have at least a few new faces on opening day. However, it’s a bit too daunting of a task to cover the entire relief corps in just one post, so let’s start today with guys who figure to be in lower leverage spots during the season.
Non-roster Players: Brandon Morrow & Jimmy Nelson
Dodger fans know Morrow well, from his solid 2017 campaign with the Blue Crew (2.18 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). It would be great if he could get back to those numbers, but we could see him making the opening day roster or at least fighting his way onto the 40-man.
Nelson, on the other hand, is a starter who has logged over 150 innings three times in his career. Nelson 2020 was lost to injury, so we’re not sure what he’s shown with up to camp with this year. Dave Roberts was talking him up as a possible starter, but he’s got a lot of bodies to climb over before he makes it to the rotation. Most likely spot for him would be as an innings eater in the middle of the year when a game is out of hand.
In addition, newcomer Garrett Cleavinger as well as young farmhands Dennis Santana and Mitch White will probably see some innings at one point or another during the year. However, the bulk of the middle inning work will probably be handled by some combination of these guys:
Victor González (2020: 20 IP, 1.33 ERA)
Victor González, the other young Mexican pitcher on the staff, was really terrific in 2020. And that in itself was something of a miracle. The righty lost all of 2017 to Tommy John surgery, but he seemed to come back from the operation stronger than ever. His fastball in the mid-90s gave opposing hitters fits all year long. He got big outs over his 15 appearances in the regular season, but probably the highlight of his year was striking out the side in the 6th inning with the Dodgers still trailing 1-0 in the deciding Game 6 of the World Series. Still only 25, Gonzalez will be a solid middle-innings option for Dave Roberts this season.
Joe Kelly (2020: 10 IP, 1.80 ERA)
Good gracious. What can you say about Joe Kelly? It’s been a wild ride since the team picked up this flamethrower off the free agent market after the 2018 season. After a disappointing and boo-inducing first year, Kelly saw limited action in the shortened season last year, but he did improve his ERA considerable over his first year in a Dodger uniform. Kelly’s smoking four-seamer seemed to have been relegated to the back burner last year, as he threw nearly 60 percent curveballs last year, including one outing in September where he called on Uncle Charlie 15 times in a row. Kelly really needs to work on his control this year for Dave Roberts to have more confidence in him as a set-up man. His 1.50 WHIP last year just doesn’t cut it for a late inning reliever. To be honest, I’m not sure Kelly was even trying to send a message to Carlos Correa on THAT pitch last August. Or maybe he was. Either way, we’re here for more of the Joe Kelly show in 2021.
Corey Knebel (2020: 13.1 IP 6.08 ERA)
A former high-leverage guy with the Brewers, Knebel is still trying to recover from Tommy John surgery that cost him a year of service time. He came back last year, and toward the end of the season, started to show signs of his old self. After an abysmal August of 2020, Knebel finished the year strong, posting a solid 2.70 ERA in the final month of the season. The right hander relies on a knuckle curve with a good bite and a fastball that can hit 98 on the gun on a good day, although the Brewers had concerns about his velocity after his Tommy John. We’re sure Knebel’s got his eye on the late innings, and if either Kenley Jansen or Blake Treinen falter, Knebel may get his shot to get back his closer status.
Scott Alexander (2020: 13.1 IP 2.92 ERA)
I’ve always liked Scott Alexander in his years that he’s been with the team. He’s gotten some big outs in a number of playoff runs, especially in 2018 when he made 73 appearances during the year. Still it seems that the Dodgers might have moved on from this lefty as he hasn’t made any playoff or World Series appearances in the last two years. He was even sent down to the alternate site a couple of times last year to make way for other pitchers. But with the departure of Adam Kolarek, the Dodgers could well have need of lefty for some key match-up outs this season. I would say he’s about a 50/50 bet to be on the opening day roster this year.
The Mystery Men: Dustin May/Julio Urias/Tony Gonsolin/David Price
Let’s face it, math is math. It’s just not possible to have all these great arms in the starting rotation, no matter how much we might want it. Perhaps the most likely scenario is that Price starts out the season in the rotation at least at first (Roberts has to respect his resume). Urias will probably fill out the last spot among the starters. Which means poor Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin will have to start the season elsewhere.
Our guess is that May will begin the year somewhere in the bullpen, and probably Gonsolin will be relegated to Oklahoma City for a while, just so he can get his innings in and stay sharp so that he can be ready if called upon. Or, maybe one of these young stud arms could be used as trade bait for another bat. Either way, Dave Roberts and Mark Prior have a good problem on their hands.
Next time, we look at who in the world gets the ball when the games on the line. But first, let’s rate the middle relief:
DODGERSBEAT RATING: B-
