Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — By any indicator, it’s been a remarkable season for starter Julio Urias: 17-7/ 2.16 ERA / 0.98 WHIP. And, around Dodgerland, there is a lot of chatter about his Cy Young chances. And indeed, there is a compelling case to be made. However, when all is said and done, I think the prize will go to the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara. Not that he deserves it over Urías, but because of some facts that are baked into the cake.
After his final start of 2022, Urías wasn’t wasting time on speculating about his Cy Young chances. “In these last two years I’ve gotten the opportunity to give 110 percent of what I have,” Urias said in Spanish after Tuesday’s game against the Rockies. “I feel like the results have shown on the field and I feel really proud of myself and everyone around me that supports me, my coaches and trainers.”
Dodger manager Dave Roberts feels like his ace has had the best year in the NL. “Obviously I’m biased, but he gets my vote,” Roberts said. “He’s been an ace for us all year long, the consistency, the performance. I still value earned run average. There’s going to be a lot of fun debating for the next couple of months and he’s backed up a great year with another great one.”
When you look at Urías and Alcántara head to head, one thing is clear. Alcántara wins all the “workhorse” categories: he has more starts (32 to 31), more quality starts (24 to 19), more innings pitched (228.2 to 175), more strikeouts (207 to 166) more complete games (6 to 0), and more shutouts (1 to 0).
However, when it comes to the “per-nine” categories, Urías is ahead in most of those. He leads Alcántara in ERA (2.16 to 2.28), WHIP (0.96 to 0.98), strikeouts per 9 (8.54 to 8.15) average against (.199 to .212) and batting average on balls in play (.229 to .262).
But here’s the key difference. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball, looking at a deep postseason run. If the team makes it to the World Series, we’re looking at another four starts minimum, not to mention who knows what kind of bullpen role he might end up with late in a series on short rest. Dave Roberts and company knew this from the get-go. So, they managed Julio’s innings with that end in mind.
On the other hand, it became pretty clear early on that the Marlins were going nowhere in 2022. There was no need to “save” Alcántara for anything. And one thing that we know about Don Mattingly from his time with the Dodgers, he likes to ride with his starters, sometimes too long. Indeed, the extra innings per start (Alcántara averaged 7.1 innings every outing this year), started to take a toll in the back half of the season. After the All-Star break, Alcántara wasn’t nearly as effective as he was in the first half of the year. After the break, Alcántara posted a fairly pedestrian 3.09 ERA. Good, but nowhere near the 1.76 he had before the break.
In contrast, the fresher Urías got better as the season progressed. After the break, Julio posted a 9-1 record with an otherworldly 1.26 ERA. So if the question was who do I want to start a game next week, the choice would be obvious: Urías hands down.
So, now that I think I’ve made the case for why Urías should win the Cy Young, let me tell you why I think he won’t.
It comes down to human nature. In the first half of the year, Alcántara was clearly the best pitcher in the National League. Julio, on the other hand, didn’t even make the All-Star team (which I’m still a bit salty about). In order for Cy Young voters to supplant Alcántara for the award, they would have to re-think previously held positions. And that’s something we humans aren’t that fond of. For a writer to move off of Alcántara, I think he would have had to have a bigger meltdown than he did in the back end of the season. Simply put, Alcántara hasn’t given the voters enough of a reason to change their minds.
Plus, let’s be honest, even though the Dodgers are a marquee organization, most of their games are being played too late for East Coast folks to catch on a regular basis. And even though the Marlins are hardly appointment viewing, chances are Alcántara got a lot more exposure in his starts against the powerhouse teams of the NL East.
And finally, there is the matter of optics. Sandy Alcántara looks like a Cy Young winner. He’s 6 foot 5 inches worth of imposing dude on the mound. And his pitches are more obviously “nasty” than those of his Dodger counterpart. Urías, on the other hand, doesn’t look the part. He’s five inches shorter than Alcántara, a little on the doughy side, with glasses and a funky left eye. And, when he pitches, he doesn’t overwhelm guys with triple-digit heaters. You look at Urías and almost scratch your head at how he can be so successful. These things shouldn’t matter, but somehow they do in the minds of the writers who vote on such things.
In my mind, Julio Urías is the best pitcher of 2022. It’s close, but he’s just had a better year than Sandy Alcántara. So if Julio does in fact win the Cy Young award this year, it will be well-deserved. It will also be a surprise. A big, big surprise.
