The Big Three (and one big question mark)

LOS ANGELES — Oh, what a difference a year makes! In last year’s preview, I was scratching my head about how in the world we were going to get all of these amazing starters into the game, given that we had seven or eight that could be in any rotation in baseball. But, Dustin May got hurt, Max Scherzer came and went, and Trevor Bauer did Trevor Bauer things. So here we are. On the eve of the 2022 season, and the starting pitching has got to be the biggest question mark on this team that would otherwise seem a lock to make a deep postseason run yet again.

Since Dave Roberts has a lot of decisions to make in the coming ten days or so, let’s start with the things we know for sure (the known knowns, as Donald Rumsfeld used to say). Then tomorrow, we’ll take a look at the murkier territory of the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. But first, with what we do know, and most of it is very good.

Walker Buehler (2021: 16-4, 2.47 ERA)

Walker Buehler had an almost perfect season last year. Up through September, I honestly thought he was going to be the Cy Young winner in the National League in 2021. He just kept getting better and better throughout the summer. A 1.85 ERA in June, 1.67 in July, and 1.56 in August. Then, he seemed to have run out of gas. After a horrible clunker up in San Francisco, his September and October were very un-Buehler-like. His ERA in September was 5.40 in the month of September, and a not much better 4.91 in the playoffs. And let’s not forget it was Buehler, who was usually nails in the postseason, that took the loss in the Dodgers elimination game in Atlanta. What was this madness?

Clearly, 2022 Walker (and the front office) are going to need to manage his workload a bit better. Hopefully, the Dodger won’t be in such a dogfight for the division this year, and they can give Buehler a start or two off during the summer. It’s critical that he be THE GUY during October, so missing a road start against Cincinnati in July is a small price to pay for a lockdown starter that takes us to the Promised Land. He started 33 games last season. If we could get him to stay at around 28-30, I think we will all be happier in October.

With the announcement of Buehler as Opening Day starter this season, he is no longer the heir apparent. He is the ace of this staff, with all the burdens that come with it. But with Buehler, I’m sure he welcomes the challenge.

Clayton Kershaw (2021: 10-8, 3.55 ERA)

I knew when Clayton Kershaw had to watch the postseason last year from the Dodger dugout that it wouldn’t be the end of his career with the team. He is too much of a competitor to go out on such a sour note. After a pretty decent start to his year, he was basically worthless after the All-Star break. He made only three starts in September, and then didn’t even get out of the second inning in his final game of the season on October 1st. That was just painful to watch. When a guy like Kershaw leaves LA, I want him to leave a winner. With an undisputed World Series title.

Kersh says he’s playing with a changeup this Spring Training, so we’ll have to see if he adds the cambio to his repertoire once the team breaks camp. I think probably Roberts might try to put Clayton into the four hole in the rotation this season, so he and Urias don’t give the opponent lefties on back to back nights. Plus, pitching Clayton in that spot would probably mean he can keep his innings in check. I don’t think we dare push him much past 150 innings this year. Still, I know Clayton has a lot of that Cy Young killer still in him. We’ll see how much of it makes it to the field.

Julio Urias (2021: 20-3, 2.96 ERA)

Last season was the year that Julio Urias officially arrived. It seems like he’s been around forever, but it was in 2021 that we saw a full season of what this young lefty can be capable of. I know the “win” stat is much maligned these days, but it is no small thing to get to twenty wins in a season, no matter how potent your offense is.

I wasn’t in love with the way the brain trust decided to use Urias in the postseason. I think he had earned a right to be a straight-up starter in his games and not some kind of super-utility guy. I hope that that idea will be abandoned this year. Just give him the ball every fifth day and trust your bullpen.

Urias is still only 25 years old, and figures to be around a whole lot longer. Let’s hope he can continue to grow into his role as one of the premier starters in the National League.

Trevor Bauer (2021: 8-5, 2.59 ERA)

And here is the mystery part of today’s post. Given MLB’s foot-dragging investigation into the sexual assault allegation against Bauer, we’re coming up on one year since the incident and we still have no idea what punishment (if any) the league will dole out in this case. So this fact lays like a big heaping mound of goo in the middle of Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts planning for this season. If Bauer is available, he can either join the rotation or be traded for a nice piece or pieces to help the team. But if he’s not going to be eligible to play, he needs to be replaced on the roster.

In my earlier piece on Bauer this spring, I said that the league owes it to the Dodgers to come to a decision by Opening Day. They already have pushed that back another week, so we’ll see what they do when April 15th rolls around. My best guess is that Bauer will be available to pitch at some point this year. The only question then would be what the Dodgers want to do with him.

DODGERSBEAT GRADE (Front of the rotation): A-