Dodgers vs. Mets NLDS Full Preview

“Dodgers Vs. Mets NLDS Full Preview”

By: Emilio Lacques-Zapien

The stage is now set for a provocative National League Division Series first round playoff matchup between the L.A. Dodgers and the N.Y Mets-two franchises that have been starving for a shot to get back to the World Series. The Mets haven’t won a title since 1986, and the Dodgers of course since ‘88, as they beat “the mighty Mets” on their way to the Fall Classic. Yes, it’s a classic west versus east battle again, but this matchup is compelling for several other reasons. I predict that when the dust settles, the Dodgers will have won the series in four games. Here’s why:

1. Starting Pitching: Two Cy Young Winners are better than none. The post season is all about pitching, pitching, and more pitching. And timely hitting and solid defense. Yes, the Mets definitely have more depth in their starting pitching, with DeGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, Matz and Colon. But the Dodgers have arguably two of the best three pitchers on the planet right now. Kershaw and Greinke are both 2015 Cy Young Candidates, and are the only current teammates that have both won the award in the past. In a short series, Kershaw will most likely go on short rest to pitch games #1 and #4, and Greinke will throw games #2 and #5 on regular rest. This means the Mets will have to go through both aces to win every game in the series except for game #3. Kershaw and Greinke also account for two of the three victories the Dodgers had over the Mets during the regular season.

Here are the projected pitching matchups:

Game #1: Clayton Kershaw (16-7, 2.13 ERA) vs. Jacob DeGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA)

Game #2: Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 3.24 ERA)

Game #3: Brett Anderson (10-9, 3.69 ERA) vs. Matt Harvey (13-8, 2.71 ERA)

Game #4: Clayton Kershaw (16-7, 2.13 ERA) vs. Steven Matz (4-0, 2.27 ERA) (if necessary)

Game #5: Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66 ERA) vs. Jacob DeGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA)  (if necessary)

While DeGrom, Syndergaard, and Harvey are extremely young and talented hard-throwing righties, this will be their first career playoff appearances. Kershaw and Greinke have battled through the rigors of October baseball several times, and are hungrier than ever to prove they can take that next step. Having to start on the road against these two will be a tall task for DeGrom and Syndergaard, and the Dodgers lineup against right-handed pitchers is much more deep and potent than some of the ridiculous ones Mattingly has thrown out there against lefties this year.

Taking a glance at the Mets game #1 starter, DeGrom’s road ERA this season was just above 3.00, over a run higher than his ERA at Citi Field. And since September 1, his overall ERA has been less impressive at 3.86. DeGrom did shut down the Dodgers for 7.2 innings in New York in late July. But that was not at Dodgers Stadium, where his Game #1 opponent Kershaw posted a remarkable 1.67 ERA this year. The reigning NL MVP dominated the Mets in July, giving up just a single earned run in 16 innings, including a complete game shutout on the road.

Syndergaard had a 4.23 ERA in 66 innings on the road this season, so the young fireballer can be vulnerable out of his element at Citi FIeld. Left-handed opponents hit .271 with a .343 on-base percentage against him on the road. Syndergaard had a solid performance against the Dodgers this summer-giving up just one earned run in six innings. But, this isn’t early July, and he’ll be dueling with Zack Greinke in front of 56,000 roucous Dodger fans.

Game #3 would shift to New York, with Brett Anderson facing off against Matt Harvey, aka “the Dark Knight.” Let’s not forget that while there is definitely a huge drop-off at the bottom of the Dodgers rotation, the silver lining with Anderson is his performance on the road this year, where he posted a 3.07 ERA, giving up just 30 earned runs in 88 innings. Brett did not face the Mets this year. Harvey has been tough at home, finishing with a 2.23 ERA, as he struck out 100 more hitters than he walked (116, 16).  Even though his ERA is almost at 4.00 since September 1st, still, advantage Harvey. But if the Dodgers are up 2-0 in the series and the pressure of the “innings limit” fiasco, a missed team workout, and a possible sweep mounts on Harvey, it could very well be a dark and sad night for Gotham..er, Queens.

Game #4 would most likely feature Kershaw on short rest versus rookie lefty Steven Matz, unless Terry Collins counters with DeGrom on short rest as well. Facing their first lefty of the series could give lightning-in-a-bottle deadline acquisition Justin Ruggiano a shot at his first start in a post-season game. He hit .301 with five bombs against lefties this season, and led the Dodgers with four home runs in the past month. Ruggiano would start over Crawford in left field. Kershaw has the advantage against pretty much any opposing pitcher, but he completely shut the door on the Mets on the road in July for a complete game shutout, striking out 11 and walking none. Plus, the Mets are not the Cardinals (ouch). If Matz isn’t available yet, N.Y. could also throw out grizzly veteran Bartolo Colon at home, but it’s unlikely.

A potential game 5 would shift back west, where Mattingly would hand Greinke the ball a second time at home, versus either DeGrom or Syndergaard again. There are only two guys who have matched Greinke’s dominance this year-one of them is on the Cubs, and the other is his teammate. There’s too much at stake-his contract, his legacy, and after watching his former team in K.C. come so close to winning it all, Greinke should be as brilliant as ever.

2. Hitting: The Dodgers offense is more well-balanced. L.A.’s new front office regime has assembled a solid offensive attack. One thing they have emphasized is grinding out tough at bats and getting on base. Obviously, this creates pressure for opposing pitchers and fielders, and more scoring opportunities overall. The Dodgers led all NL playoff contenders with a .326 team OBP, while the Mets finished last out of the five, at .312. They had similar OPS results as well-the Dodgers finished at .739, versus the Mets .712. Neither team’s overall batting average was impressive, but L.A. walked 75 more times, and struck out 32 less times. Cespedes was not on the Mets roster yet when these two faced off in July, so that will create another big test for L.A. Assuming that tough starting pitching could dominate the series, timely hitting will be the key to winning close games. The Dodgers have a nice balance of veteran leadership and young bats to get the job done. 

Here is a loose projection of what the Mets offensive attack could look like in game #1:

1. Curtis Granderson RF (.259, 26 HRs, 70 RBI, .183 vs lefties.)
2. David Wright 3B (.289, 5 HR, 17 RBI, .389 on road vs. lefties) 
3. Yoenis Cespedes CF (.291, 35 HR, 105 RBI, .320, 25 HR away)
4. Lucas Duda 1B (.244, 27 HR, 73 RBI, .311, 4 HR away vs. lefties)
5. Michael Cuddyer LF (.259, 10 HR, 41 RBI, .273 vs. lefties)
6. Travis D’Arnaud C (.268, 12 HR, 41 RBI, .389 vs. lefties away)
7. Daniel Murphy 2B (.281, 14 HR, 73 RBI, .310, 7 HR away)
8. Ruben Tejada SS (.261, 3 HR, 28 RBI, .333 vs lefties away)
9. Jacob DeGrom P

This leaves room for six bench players: C Kevin Plawecki,  IF Wilmer Flores, IF Kelly Johnson, OF Michael Conforto, OF Juan Lagares, OF, Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

The Dodgers should go with this lineup in game #1:

1. Crawford LF (.265, 4 HR, 16 RBI, .329 at home)
2. Kendrick 2B (.295, 9 HR, 54 RBI, .111 vs Mets)
3. Gonzalez 1B (.275, 28 HR, 90 RBI, .368, 2 HR vs Mets)
4. Turner 3B (.294, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .304 with 3 RBI vs. Mets)
5. Ethier RF (.294, 14 HR, 53 RBI, .311 post all-star game)
6. Seager SS (.337, 4 HR, 17 RBI, .345 vs righties)
7. Hernandez CF (.307, 7 HR, 22 RBI, .350 post all-star game)
8. Ellis C (.238, 7 HR, 21 RBI, .444 last 7 days)
9. Kershaw P

The bench should include: C Yasmani Grandal, IF Chase Utley, IF Jimmy Rollins, OF Yasiel Puig, OF Joc Pederson, OF Justin Ruggiano. 

3. Defense: Dodgers with the slight edge.

The Dodgers led the National League in both fielding percentage at .988%, and least errors committed at 75. The Mets finished fifth in NL in each of these categories, with a .986% fielding percentage and 86 errors. Both clubs have solid overall defensive teams, but the Dodgers have more dynamic outfielder options, carrying six outfielders, with young studs Puig and Pederson possibly seeing some time out there in this series. Though Cespedes has an incredible throwing arm, he covers less ground in centerfield. The Mets also seem willing to stick veteran Cuddyer in left field to get his bat in the lineup against left-handed pitchers Kershaw and Anderson.

The big test in the infield for the Dodgers will be rookie shortstop Corey Seager, and Justin Turner’s overall health and range (or lack thereof) at third. The Mets are above average on the left side with Wright and Tejada. On the right side of the infield, the Dodgers should have the advantage with dependable veterans Kendrick and Gonzalez over Murphy and Duda. Both clubs have strong defensive catchers, but Grandal is considered the best pitch-framer in the N.L, and A.J. Ellis is battle-tested, while D’Arnaud has yet to catch a post-season game.

4. Bullpen: Mets with a slight advantage. The two clubs finished fourth and fifth in the N.L. with nearly identical team ERA’s (3.43, 3.44), and the exact same WHIP (1.18). But the Dodgers bullpen has been mediocre at best in 2015, going 28-28 with a 3.91 ERA, as they gave up 446 hits, 203 earned runs, and 51 home runs in 467 innings.   

The Mets bullpen went 26-21 with a 3.48 ERA. They allowed just 398 hits, 178 earned runs and 42 home runs in 460 innings. Besides their lock-down closers Jansen and Familia, neither ‘pen has been incredibly consistent, but the Mets have the better overall staff. With both clubs possessing powerful starting pitching, the bullpen who can step up and finish the job could end up being a deciding factor in the series. Howell for L.A. and Clippard for N.Y. should serve as the second “aces” of their respective bullpens aside from the closers. Can the Dodgers get the ball to Jansen without imploding? Can the Mets young arms handle the pressure on the road in a tough playoff atmosphere? 

Mets Projected Bullpen:

CL Jeurys Familia (2-2, 1.85 ERA, 43 SV, 19 BB, 86 K)

RHP Addison Reed (3-3, 3.38 ERA, 19 BB, 51 K)  

RHP Tyler Clippard (5-4, 2.92 ERA, 31 BB, 64 K)

RHP Bartolo Colon (14-13, 4.16 ERA, 24 BB, 136 K)

LHP Jonathon Niese (9-10, 4.13 ERA, 55 BB, 113 K)

RHP Erik Goeddel (1-1, 2.43 ERA, 9 BB, 34 K)

LHP Sean Gilmartin (3-2, 2.67 ERA, 18 BB, 54 K)

 

Dodgers Projected Bullpen:

CL Kenley Jansen (2-1, 2.45 ERA, 36 SV, 8 BB, 80 K)

LHP J.P. Howell (6-1, 1.43 ERA, 14 BB, 39 K)

RHP Chris Hatcher (3-5, 3.69 ERA, 13 BB, 45 K)

RHP Pedro Baez (4-2, 3.35 ERA, 11 BB, 60 K)

RHP Joel Peralta (3-1, 4.34 ERA, 8 BB, 24 K)

LHP Luis Avilan (2-5, 4.05 ERA, 15 BB, 49 K)

RHP Yimi Garcia (3-5, 3.34 ERA, 10 BB, 68 K)

Lefty starting pitcher Alex Wood (12-12, 3.84 ERA) will also be on the roster. He could spot start or provide long relief if someone gets chased early, or if for some reason Kershaw can’t go in game #4.

5. Dodgers X-Factors:

Justin Turner (3B): Needless to say, MLB players take a lot of pride in their craft, and Turner will be out to make a big statement against the club who let him go just a few years ago. This season he hit .304 with two doubles and a home run against the Mets. Hitting behind Crawford, Kendrick and Gonzalez should give Turner ample RBI opportunities with runners on base. The Dodgers will need a couple big hits in critical situations from the Red Mamba in order to take down New York.

Corey Seager (SS): The highly anticipated early rookie call-up was serendipitously forced by an injury to the aging Rollins. Seager burst onto the major league scene this season, batting .337 with four home runs and 17 RBI in limited at-bats. He also hit .325 against lefties, which is a rare luxury for the Dodgers if he can keep it up. After making five errors in just 21 games at shortstop this year, Seager is more of an X-Factor defensively above all else. In his first season in the show, in his first playoff appearance, against a team who hits the ball hard, how will the 6’4 21-year old handle the pressure in the middle of the diamond?

Chris Hatcher (RHP): It’s been an up and down season for Hatcher to say the least. He was initially in the running to serve as the Dodgers premiere set-up man or middle relief power-righty. Hatcher’s first half was a disaster, as he gave up 22 hits in 18.1 innings and his ERA ballooned to 6.38. Dodgers fans across the world were begging to see Hatcher pack his bags. But he rebounded for a solid second half, posting a 1.31 ERA, striking out 26 batters in 20.2 innings. The Dodgers have desperately needed a solid bridge-righty to Kenley Jansen, but will they get first half or second half Hatcher against the Mets? 

Carl Crawford (LF): It feels like every post season, a few veteran role players rise to the occasion with a couple big hits that propel their squad to the next level. CC3 has been here before, hitting .275 with seven bombs in 142 career playoff at-bats. Crawford was a three-sport athlete growing up, and has never been afraid of big moments. The young righty Mets fireballers will have their hands full with Gonzo, Turner, Ethier, Seager, and Kendrick, so Crawford could do some damage from the left side if they overlook him. Watch out for CC3 to make an impact in games #1 and #2 at Dodger Stadium, where he hit .329 this year.

Emilio Lacques-Zapien is a Dodgers Beat Writer with the Carson Courier and www.DodgersBeat.com. He is 27 years old, born in Hollywood and raised in Mid-City L.A. His favorite Dodger is Adrian Gonzalez, and he can teach you how to dougie. Continue the conversation with him on Twitter: @EmilioLZ323