Jake Dicker
With the Dodgers currently 19.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks (as of 8/14) in the NL West, it is safe to say the Dodgers are a lock to make the playoffs. The Dodgers have used 44 different players at one point or another this season, but only 25 can make the October roster. In this article, we place 36 different players into one of three categories: lock, maybe, left off roster; to predict what the roster will look like come playoff time, barring all injuries.
Locks: Pedro Baez, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Dustin May, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Corey Seager, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Julio Urias
Every player listed above has contributed immensely to the Dodgers incredible season thus far. Buehler, Kershaw, and Ryu are locks for the rotation. Baez, Jansen, Kelly, Maeda, and Urias are locks for the bullpen. Dustin May is interesting. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recently noted that Rich Hill will not be back from the injured list in time to be able to throw enough pitches to start in October. This leaves the last spot in the rotation wide open. There are many guys who can fill the spot: Maeda, May, Stripling, Urias. I believe the Dodgers best option is to make May the Game 4 starter, and use the others as relievers, a role in which they have all flourished previously. If they choose to use a three man rotation in the NLDS, May can be a great addition to the bullpen. In just three starts, his sinker/slider combination has proven to be electric and keep opposing hitters on their toes. He looks like the real deal. It is very difficult for me to imagine a situation where May is left off the postseason roster entirely, and for that reason, I consider him a lock.
Health Question Marks, But Locks if Healthy: David Freese, Rich Hill, Chris Taylor, Alex Verdugo
The Dodgers roster is so deep, that you may not even recognize that the injury bug has hit the Dodgers this season. If Freese, Hill, Taylor, and Verdugo all make full recoveries from their injuries, they are locks to make the postseason roster.
In his age 36 season, David Freese was having one of the best statistical seasons of his career before hitting the injured list on June 23. In 141 at bats, Freese is hitting .300 with a career best .977 OPS (on base % + slugging %). When Freese was resigned to a 1 year, $4.5 million contract this offseason, the Dodgers did not expect anything close to this kind of production out of the veteran. Last postseason, Freese started strictly versus left handers, but in 2019, his splits are reversed. This season Freese is hitting .368 versus righties and .253 versus lefties. Freese will be a valuable bench bat for the Dodgers if he returns from the injured list at full health.
Rich Hill has been sidelined since late June with a left forearm strain. In recent years, Hill has been one of the Dodgers most reliable arms in the postseason. He has a career 3.04 postseason ERA, and has pitched many big games for the Dodgers, including three World Series starts. This postseason, if healthy, Hill’s role will be different than in years past. Due to returning from the injured list in September (if he returns at all), Hill will be a relief pitcher in the playoffs, coming out of the bullpen. For a team desperate for left handed relief help, this may end up being a blessing in disguise for the Dodgers. If Hill can come back from the injured list and stay healthy, which has been a struggle for him in his career, he will most likely be the second left handed option out of the bullpen behind Julio Urias.
According to Jorge Castillo, Dodgers beat writer for the Los Angeles Times, Chris Taylor has been making great progress from his left forearm fracture, and is set to begin a rehab assignment this weekend. This is great news for the Dodgers. CT3, as he is known, is a spark plug in the Dodger lineup. On top of his quality bat, Taylor provides defensive versatility. He is a natural shortstop, but has played more outfield for the Dodgers in his career. Whether his name is in the starting lineup, or he comes off the bench in a big situation, the Dodgers will be happy to have CT3 back for their playoff run.
There are very few things that get Dodger Stadium as excited as hearing “Volver, Volver” blast through the speakers as Alex Verdugo walks to the plate. In his first full season with the Dodgers, Verdugo has proven why he was a top prospect in the organization, and why the Dodgers refused to move him in many big potential trades. As an every day player, Verdugo is hitting .294 with 12 home runs and a .817 OPS. In the outfield, Verdugo has an absolute cannon of an arm, contributing to his six outfield assists this season. “The Kid” (self imposed nickname) is currently dealing with an oblique injury, which is supposed to keep him out of the lineup until at least the end of August. Oblique injuries tend to linger, so it is important that Verdugo fully recovers from the injury before we see him on the field again. Due to the depth of the Dodgers roster and their current place in the standings, there is no reason to rush him back into the lineup.
Maybe: Austin Barnes, Matt Beaty, Caleb Ferguson, Dylan Floro, Yimi Garcia, Tony Gonsolin, Kiké Hernández, Adam Kolarek, Russell Martin, Kristopher Negrón, Casey Sadler, Ross Stripling
These are mostly position battles. You have three main battles: 5th right handed reliever, 3rd left handed reliever, and backup catcher. The remaining players deemed “maybe” are competing for bench (maybe an occasional start) spots.
5th Right Handed Reliever: Floro, Garcia, Gonsolin, Sadler, Stripling
Although five names are listed above, this is really a three man race between Gonsolin, Sadler, and Stripling. Surprisingly, none of these men are currently on the active roster. After stints with the big league club, both Gonsolin and Sadler were optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City, and Stripling is on the injured list with a stiff neck.
Before being optioned, Gonsolin showed why he is regarded as one of the Dodgers’ most promising pieces moving forward. In two appearances, he threw 10 innings of one run ball, four of those innings coming in Coors Field, where the baseball absolutely flies. Gonsolin has the ability to pitch multiple innings, which can be a huge help to a team in the playoffs. If Gonsolin can continue to record quality outs at the big league level once recalled, he has a strong chance to make the postseason roster.
The Dodgers acquired Casey Sadler in early July after he was DFA’d by the Tampa Bay Rays. The Dodgers were desperate for relief help, and took a chance on Sadler. Very quietly, Sadler has been really good in his time in Los Angeles. In 12.1 innings spanning nine appearances, Sadler has an ERA of 0.73 and a WHIP below 1. He has not been as sharp in his appearances in August. Sadler was recently optioned to Triple-A for a number of reasons, one being he has minor league options left. This means the Dodgers are able to send Sadler to the minors without putting him on waivers and risking losing him to another team. He should be back up with the Dodgers soon, and will be given opportunities to prove himself once again.
It is really easy to root for Ross Stripling. He has been an essential part of successful Dodgers teams for the last three seasons. Last season, even after an incredible first half of the season as a starting pitcher that resulted in an all star selection, he was left off the postseason roster entirely. I think we may be looking at a similar situation this season. Stripling is currently on the injured list with a neck injury. Once returning from the injured list, Stripling will join the bullpen. If he returns to the lights out pitcher we saw at the beginning of 2018, it will be hard to leave him off the roster. However, it has been over a year since we saw Stripling at his best.
3rd Left Handed Reliever
This battle is much simpler than the 5th right handed reliever. This spot comes down to Caleb Ferguson and Adam Kolarek. Neither Ferguson or Kolarek are having great seasons. After a promising 2018 campaign, Ferguson has been incredibly underwhelming in 2019. He currently holds an ERA of 5.53 and a WHIP of 1.74. Left handers are hitting .208 against him. Newly acquired Adam Kolarek has had a marginally better 2019, with an ERA at 3.89, but his numbers versus left handers are about the same. Against Kolarek, left handers are hitting .203. Kolarek has not seen many opportunities with the Dodgers, but will need to perform when they come his way in order to make the October roster. At the moment, this is a toss up, but the Dodgers will select whoever has the hot hand heading into the playoffs.
Backup Catcher
The only way Russell Martin does not make a playoff roster is if Austin Barnes comes back up from Triple-A and performs at a high level. Since being demoted, Barnes is hitting .300 with five home runs in 14 games with the Oklahoma City Dodgers. If he can have the same success at the major league level once rosters expand in September, he has a legitimate chance to make the playoff roster as the backup catcher. If Barnes continues to struggle like he has at the major league level, the Dodgers will be more than happy with Russell Martin as their backup catcher for the 2019 postseason.
Bench Spots
When looking at the Dodgers’ roster, it becomes clear that there are three players competing for two spots on the postseason roster: Matt Beaty, Kiké Hernández, and Kristopher Negrón.
Beaty deserves a spot. He has exceeded all expectations since being called up by the Dodgers, and has played his way onto the roster. When making this list, I was incredibly close to putting him as a “lock”, due to his consistency and performance. In 162 at bats, Beaty is hitting .296 with an OPS of .842. For comparison, Corey Seager currently has an OPS of .782. Beaty is significantly better versus right handed pitching compared to left handed pitching. Versus right handers, Beaty is hitting .312 with a .908 OPS. When facing lefties, Beaty’s average drops to .182 and his OPS falls to .409. If all goes right for Beaty, he could find himself in the starting lineup versus right handed starting pitching in the playoffs.
If Hernández returns from the injured list and performs at a high level, the second spot should go his way. He is hitting a disappointing .238 this season, but has hit 16 home runs and driven in 52 runs. Despite his numbers this season, Kiké has proven himself as a contributing member of the Dodgers, and should be given every opportunity to turn his struggles at the plate around. His right handed bat is of need for a Dodgers team that is very left hand heavy at the plate. Hernández can play almost any position on the field which provides a ton of value in the playoffs, especially with the way Roberts manages in October.
Kristopher Negrón has provided depth and versatility since acquired by the Dodgers, but it seems as if he will be the odd man out this October. If Hernández struggles upon his return, Negrón could potentially sneak onto the roster, but with so much talent ahead of him on the depth chart, it seems unlikely that we see Negrón when it counts.
Left Off Roster: JT Chargois, Kyle Garlick, Jedd Gyorko, Edwin Rios, Tyler White
Unfortunately, there are only 25 roster spots, and the season will end for some players before it ends for the team. It is hard for me to envision any scenario that results in Chargois, Garlick, Gyorko, Rios, or White making the postseason roster.
Official Roster Prediction
Rotation: Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Hyun-Jin Ryu
Bullpen: Pedro Baez, Tony Gonsolin, Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Adam Kolarek, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias
Catchers: Russell Martin, Will Smith
Infielders: Matt Beaty, David Freese, Kiké Hernández, Max Muncy, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner
Outfielders: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, Alex Verdugo
