Steve Webb
In the last post, we discussed the three locks for spots in this year’s loaded Dodgers rotation. Today, we’re going to try to make sense of everyone who’s not named Bauer, Buehler, or Kershaw. The depth that skipper Dave Roberts and pitching coach Mark Prior have to work with this year is very deep indeed. In addition to the aforementioned “Big Three”, there are all kinds of quality pitchers that will be vying for a spot in the rotation. Right now, Prior is committed to keeping the team on a five-man schedule this year, so that means there are just two more spots up for grabs.
DARK HORSES – Nelson & Gray
There are two arms that worth mentioning, even though neither saw any big league action last year: veteran Jimmy Nelson and hot prospect Josiah Gray. Nelson’s best year was 2017 with Milwaukee when he went 12-6, but has been hampered by injuries ever since. He missed all of the 2020 season. Gray’s stock as a minor leaguer continues to rise; he has a 2.37 ERA in the minors and is ranked the 68th overall prospect this season. However, both pitchers are unlikely to see anything more than spot duty this season. There are just too many names on the depth chart ahead of them. The real fight will be among four pitchers: David Price, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May.
DAVID PRICE (2020: Opted Out)
Former Cy Young winner Price was almost an afterthought in the Mookie Betts deal last winter. And, with his decision to opt out of last season, he hasn’t really made an impression on Dodger fans one way or another yet. In fact, the last clear memory of Price that we have is of his dominant World Series performances in 2018, when Alex Cora seemed to give him the ball every other day. Since then, his numbers have been lackluster. His 7 wins and 4.28 ERA in 2019 was hardly the stuff of a 30-million-dollar pitcher. Even though the Dodgers don’t have to foot the entire bill, they’d like to get something out of him in 2021. According to Baseball Reference’s projections, they see him pitching 71 innings with a 4.31 ERA. Not much, but we’ll take it, I suppose. With no 2020 stats to go on, Price remains the biggest wild card in the pack right now.
JULIO URIAS (2020: 55 IP, 3.27 ERA, 45 K)
World Series hero Urias almost doesn’t belong in this category, as he figures to be an important part of the Dodgers plans this year, no matter what. The only question is what the Dodgers intend to do with him. In a recent interview Mark Prior said that Urias would be “unleashed” this season, but quickly added that he didn’t see him as a 30-start/200-inning guy this year because of his “fragmented workload” in previous years. Look for Urias to slot into the #4 spot in the rotation at the beginning of the year. If nothing else, we’ll always have Dallas.
TONY GONSOLIN (2020: 46.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 46 K)
We were all just introduced to Tony Gonsolin and his odd love of cats last year. But quietly, he had one of the best years of any young pitcher last season. There was a stretch there in August where he went a whole month with an ERA south of 1.00. Which is why is sub-par performance in the playoffs and World Series is so perplexing. For some reason, nerves or whatever, he just didn’t have it during the postseason. Perhaps the weird way that Roberts ended up using him threw off his rhythm and preparation. Luckily, none of it mattered in the end. We’re hoping for good things from Gonsolin this year, but I don’t necessarily see him as in the rotation at the beginning of the year.
DUSTIN MAY (2020: 56 IP, 2.57 ERA, 44 K)
Dustin May made a splash to say the least in 2020. The lanky redhead was an emergency call-up on opening day, and ended up pitching a whale of a game in place of fellow Texan Clayton Kershaw. Given the opportunity, May never looked back. In his shortened season of work, he was all that the Dodgers could have hoped for and by September Roberts was letting the youngster go deep into games. He too was used in sort of a perplexing way in the postseason, so I’m not really sure what the Dodgers brain trust is thinking for Big Red in the 2021 campaign. With the easy way that May can hit triple digits on the gun with nasty stuff, I could easily see him moving into a high-leverage bullpen role this year.
My spitball prediction for the opening rotation in 2021: Kershaw, Bauer, Buehler, Urias, Price. But really, with this group you could pull one of these names out of a hat and get a quality start.
DODGERSBEAT RATING: A+
Let’s close with Dustin embarrassing Manny Machado with the pitch that broke the Internet (just cuz we can):
