Jake Dicker
Since the Astros acquired starting pitcher and former Dodger Zack Greinke at the trade deadline earlier this week, there has been lots of talk about Houston’s new “Big 3” in their starting rotation. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke now form one of the most dominant trios in the MLB, that many believe will carry Houston to their second World Series championship in three years.
The Dodgers have a “Big 3” of their own. Although they may not get the national attention that Houston’s rotation does, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, and Clayton Kershaw form a trio of starting pitchers that have headed the best rotation in baseball in 2019. Their pitching style is very different than that of Houston’s trio. Verlander and Cole are both power pitchers, relying heavily on their fastball to record outs. Walker Buehler is the lone power pitcher in the Dodgers’ rotation, let alone the trio. Kershaw and Ryu focus on using a heavy dose of off-speed and breaking pitches to get the job done, as does Zack Greinke. None of their fastballs eclipse 92 miles per hour. Verlander, Cole, and Buehler have no problem touching 99-100 miles per hour with their fastball. Each trio features a first ballot hall of famer in Verlander and Kershaw, and a potential hall of famer in Greinke, and if everything continues to go right, Buehler.
When asked, “Which trio is better? Verlander, Cole, Greinke or Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu?”, I’d bet most people take the Astros trio without much thought. When you dig into the numbers, it is much closer than you may think. Let’s take a look at each pitcher and the season they are having to determine which trio gives their team an edge.
Justin Verlander
The starter for the American League in this years all star game, Justin Verlander has been one of the most dominant arms in baseball this season. He currently leads the AL in earned run average (ERA) at 2.68, walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP) at 0.81, and is tied for the league lead with 14 wins. Maybe the most important statistic is that he leads the american league in strikeout to walk ratio at 6.32, while holding opposing hitters to a .169 batting average. Being able to avoid the free pass has made Verlander even more effective. The only true problem with Verlander this season has been the long ball. Verlander has allowed a league leading 29 home runs, and has not been afraid to voice his opinion about the baseballs being “juiced”. Verlander has never allowed more than 30 home runs in a season, and is almost guaranteed to do so this year. However, this is much more acceptable and tolerable for a pitcher like Verlander that rarely allows runs in any other fashion.
Verlander had a terrific month of July, going 4-1 in five starts with a 2.25 ERA. He has a knack to get better as he gets older, as well as later in games. Verlander’s fastball routinely gains velocity as the game progresses, which is practically unheard of. When it comes to October, Verlander holds a career 3.19 playoff ERA in 152.1 innings pitched. He is in heavy consideration for the AL Cy Young award, and will most likely be called on to take the bump in Game 1 of any playoff series.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
The starter for the National League in this years all star game, Hyun-Jin Ryu has been the heart and soul of the Dodgers’ rotation this season. Currently on the injured list, Ryu leads all of baseball in many major statistical categories. Most impressive, Ryu leads baseball with a 1.53 ERA, over a full run better than Justin Verlander. If you remove the first of Ryu’s two starts at Coors Field this season from his stat-line, his ERA drops below 1.30. Ryu’s biggest problem in his career has been staying healthy. When he is on the mound, he has been a very effective pitcher for the Dodgers. He posts a career ERA of 2.87. For comparison, Justin Verlander’s career ERA sits at 3.35. Although Ryu’s sample size is not incredibly large, at only 693.1 innings pitched (Verlander is approaching 3,000 career innings), it should be noted that he is a very good major league pitcher. He has finally put it all together this season. He leads major league baseball in ERA (1.53), WHIP (0.94), and BB/9 (1.1). He is the clear frontrunner for NL Cy Young.
Right now, Ryu’s next challenge is getting back on the field. He is currently on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 1st, with neck soreness. It is not believed to be serious, and he is only expected to miss one start. In the month of July, Ryu was dominant. In five starts, three coming on the road, Ryu went 2-0 with a 0.55 ERA in 32.2 innings pitched. The season he has put together has been truly remarkable. If he can come back from the injured list without skipping a beat, the Dodgers should feel very comfortable with him taking the mound against anybody in October.
Gerrit Cole
Since being traded to Houston before the 2018 season, Gerrit Cole has revamped his career, and looks like a completely different pitcher than what we saw in Pittsburgh years prior. In his final season with the Pirates, Cole had his worst statistical season, going 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA. In two seasons in Houston, Cole finished 2018 with an ERA of 2.88, and his 2019 ERA currently sits at 2.87. This season, he leads the american league in strikeouts (216), and his WHIP is below 1. Cole would be the number one pitcher in 25 different rotations in major league baseball, but behind Verlander, he may be the best number two starter in all of baseball.
In the month of July, Cole made five starts, posting a 1.85 ERA. Cole features a four pitch mix, throwing a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. All four are above average pitches, that he feels comfortable throwing in any count to any hitter. Like Verlander, Cole was named an american league all star this season, and should receive votes for the AL Cy Young award. Cole has pitched in five total playoff games, walking away with a 3.72 playoff ERA. He is set to be a free agent at the end of the year.
Walker Buehler
Coming off a complete game, 15 strikeout performance, Walker Buehler seems to be hitting his stride at the right time. Buehler features the most electric repertoire in the Dodgers’ rotation (Dustin May and his 96 mph sinker may have something to say about that). In his second full season with the Dodgers, Buehler has been somewhat inconsistent, in large part due to him skipping the majority of spring training due to minor injuries. However, he has looked much better as of late. After being named an all star for the first time in his career, Buehler has posted a 2.32 ERA in four starts since the break. On the year, Buehler has a 3.22 ERA, and leads major league baseball in strikeout to walk ratio at 7.60. One thing that is certain is that Walker is not afraid of the big stage. In Game 3 of the 2018 World Series, Buehler threw seven shutout innings of two hit baseball, while fanning seven, a performance ultimately overshadowed by the 18 inning marathon that followed.
Similar to Verlander, Buehler has been hurt by the long ball in 2019. He has given up 16 home runs in 131.1 innings pitched. Part of this is due to the fact that both Buehler and Verlander throw so hard, supplying lots of the power themselves, and from time to time, a fastball runs into a barrel. However, this also has to do with the location of his pitches. When Walker is spotting his fastball, setting up his slider, he is one of the best pitchers in the league. When the control is not necessarily there, and Walker has to rely more on his fastball to get back in counts, that is when he tends to make a mistake, leaving a heater over the middle of the plate. If Buehler can roll together 4-5 more quality starts heading into the postseason, his presence on the mound will be very difficult for opposing lineups.
Zack Greinke
Nobody was talking about an Astros “three headed monster” two weeks ago. Nobody was talking about it on July 31 at 1 PM PST either. The trade deadline lacked big names, and was ultimately seen as pretty boring. Everything changed shortly after 1 PM PST when the news trickled in that the Astros had made a deal to acquire Zack Greinke minutes before the deadline. Dodger fans are very aware of Greinke’s capabilities, as he spent 2013-2015 with the team, finishing 2nd in NL Cy Young voting in 2015. He is yet to make a start for his new club, but for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Zack Greinke has had a sensational year. He is currently 10-4 with a 2.90 ERA over 146 innings. Greinke ranks 2nd in the MLB behind Hyun-Jin Ryu in WHIP at 0.95. Greinke is undoubtedly an ace, and is likely to start Game 3 of any playoff series for the Astros. A pitcher of Greinke’s caliber starting Game 3 speaks to the depth of the Astros rotation.
The only saving grace for the Dodgers versus Greinke is that they hit him very well. He was tagged for seven earned runs, including four home runs, against the Dodgers on opening day. Over the course of their careers, the Dodgers big bats have had lots of success versus Greinke. Against Greinke, Cody Bellinger is hitting .458 with two home runs in 24 at bats, Corey Seager is hitting .438 with three home runs in 16 at bats, Justin Turner is hitting .333 in 33 at bats, and Joc Pederson is hitting .321 with two home runs in 28 at bats.
Clayton Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw is quietly having a fantastic year for the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his age 31 season, Kershaw has made 19 starts, going 10-2 with a 2.85 ERA. When comparing Kershaw to the five other pitchers discussed, in 2019, he ranks 3rd in ERA, just behind Verlander (2.68) and just ahead of Cole (2.87) and Greinke (2.90). The biggest change in Kershaw’s game from previous years is the velocity on his fastball. In 2019, Kershaw’s fastball rarely touches 92 miles per hour. In previous years Kershaw threw his heater near 95 miles per hour. Unlike other pitchers, the drop in velocity has not taken a toll on Kershaw’s statistical numbers. He is so good at locating pitches, and when combined with his wipeout slider and incredible curveball, Kershaw becomes a devastating left hander on the mound.
The most impressive statistic of Kershaw’s season is that he has pitched at least six innings in all 19 starts. He is incredibly reliable, and you know what you are going to get every time he takes the mound. In 2019, Kershaw has struggled in the first inning, posting a 6.16 first inning ERA. Once out of the first inning, Kershaw has been incredible all season long for the Dodgers. Like Buehler, Kershaw is hitting his stride at the right time. In the month of July, Kershaw made four starts, holding opponents to a .159 batting average, and posting a 1.44 ERA. At Dodger Stadium this year, Kershaw is 7-0 with a 2.35 ERA, compared to a 3.58 ERA on the road. Get Kershaw some starts at Chavez Ravine, and I like his chances this postseason.
After looking into it, which trio do you prefer? I’m going to roll with my boys in blue. Sound off in the comments!
