Roger Arrieta
So the Cards are set, the Dodgers will continue step two of their mission starting Friday in St. Louis.
Though Donnie Baseball has shown his rotations are never set in stone, the Dodgers will likely start Zack Greinke in Game 1, with Clayton Kershaw likely to start Game 2, and Hyun-Jin Ryu the front-runner to start Game 3.
Regular season stats are generally less meaningful in baseball than they are in other sports, especially because a 162-game season assures no team escapes injuries, losing streaks, and the growing pains that prepare young ballplayers for October.
That doesn’t mean regular season stats are irrelevant, especially when it comes to starting pitching. This is how Dodgers playoff starters fared this year against the Cardinals.
Unlike Greinke and Ryu, who have only faced the Cardinals once this year, Kershaw faced the Cardinals twice in 2013. On a May 25 game at Dodger Stadium, Kershaw allowed four runs, walked three and struck out five in seven innings in a 5-3 Dodgers loss. He fared better in his second start at Busch Stadium August 6, allowing two earned runs, walking two, and striking out five, though the Dodgers continued their habitual letdown of Kershaw this season, dropping that game 5-1.
Greinke allowed two earned runs over 6.1 innings, walked one, and struck out four in a 3-2 Dodger win in which Greinke outpitched Adam Wainwright.
For his part, Ryu allowed one unearned run, didn’t allow a walk, and struck out seven in seven stellar innings of work in a 5-1 Dodgers win August 8 at Busch Stadium.
Though Kershaw wasn’t his ol’ stellar self in his first meeting vs. the Cards in May, his body of work this year (and last year, and the year before) and his two playoff performances against the Braves are better indicators of where Kershaw stands this October.
That same logic yields a more discomforting notion for Dodger fans, as Ryu’s outing Sunday–that saw him figuratively limp out of the third inning–could be a better indicator of where he stands than his stellar seven innings in St. Louis in August.
Donnie says Ryu’s struggles were due to nerves, not any physical ailment–which doesn’t leave Dodger fans breathing any more comfortably.
In any case, the Dodgers blueprint for October magic is as clear as it has ever been. They are more talented, they have the more explosive lineup, and they have better pitching. Of course, that guarantees you nothing in baseball, but it leaves one thing clear: if the Dodgers play to their potential, there is no team that can beat them because they are more talented (especially in the most essential aspects) than any team in this year’s playoffs.
In other words, if the Dodgers continue to bring life to this year’s A Whole New Blue ad campaign, they’re only halfway done with champagne celebrations.
Francisco J. Reyes
@fjr3487
